• by Karl Greenberg , January 24, 2012

Brand Keys' 10th annual Super Bowl Engagement Survey finds that only half of Super Bowl XLIV’s advertisers will get real ROI from their Super Bowl purchase. Among the winners are Doritos, Hyundai and Cars.com. Those that the survey suggests will get nothing or worse are: Budweiser, Century 21 and Dannon.

On Jan. 14 and 15, the firm polled a national sample of 1,500 men and women 18 to 65 years of age, who said they are going to watch Super Bowl XLVI. The poll's aim was to determine whether among those who intend to watch the Super Bowl, a brand's image benefits or is degraded by the mere fact that it plans to advertise during the game.

The firm classifies advertisers as “winners” if they get at least a five-point lift in brand equity), and “losers” if they lose five or points of brand equity points). Unchanged means a tie.

Doritos (+13), Hyundai (+12), Cars.com (+10), Audi (+9), Coke (+8), Pepsi (+7), GoDaddy.com (+6), M&Ms (+6), CareerBuilder (+5), Skechers (+5), and Toyota (+5) can feel okay about their spend. But Kia (-5), Teleflora (-6), Dannon (-6), Best Buy (-7), Century 21 (-8), and Budweiser (-9) might want to tap a keg and rethink -- or at least acknowledge -- that their creative will be swimming upriver against consumer sentiment, if the firm's data can be extrapolated. Unaffected are Chrysler, Volkswagen, GM, NBC’s “The Voice,” Bud Light Platinum and Honda.

Robert Passikoff, Brand Keys’ president, tells Marketing Daily that a brand can't make awareness the goal. "Everyone's advertising is known by everyone. But what did you get besides time and exposure? Did you get engagement? Did you take the brand, put it in an environment and come with people thinking better of you? Does the brand exceed expectations people hold for the category because of the ad? What we absolutely know, and independently validated, is that the more a brand is seen to better meet consumers' ideal, the better it does in the marketplace."

Amy Shea, EVP of global brand development at Brand Keys, says yogurt is a good example of a category that isn't helped by being served in a Super Bowl. "How good will a yogurt ad have to be or different to make yogurt suddenly resonate in that environment, when the whole idea of the Super Bowl is built on this 'letting go' pleasure? The creative can be wonderful, but brands forget that creative can only go so far in terms of whether or not there is fit between the brand and the Super Bowl."

Within categories, Passikoff suggests that Hyundai scored well because it has established itself as a kind of heroic brand among automakers through programs like Hyundai Assurance, where people could return their Hyundai vehicles if they lost their jobs. But, he says, Kia didn't have that kind of meaning, so isn't as good a fit for the big game.

"What we are looking for is a more rigid measure in terms of brand engagement. Neither Amy nor I nor you understand whether an ad will be good or bad," says Passikoff. "The fact that they are running the ad on that venue guarantees attention, but it doesn't guarantee strategy."