• by Wayne Friedman , March 20, 2012

A slowdown of the economy will result in lower estimates for traditional local media business in the coming years, according to a recent study. But local digital revenues will continue to climb by double-digit percent increases.

Taking out local digital business, BIA/Kelsey says local traditional media revenues -- TV, print, radio and other local media -- will barely move by 2016, rising at an average compounded annual rate of 0.2% to $112.7 billion from $111.5 billion in 2011.

All local media revenue -- including digital -- will now grow at a slower 2.6% to $151.3 billion in four years. The media research group also revised its 2011 numbers: Local media revenue was down 2.4% to $132.8 billion versus 2010. Previously, it forecast that local media would be $135.9 billion in 2011. 

As with many other studies, local digital media will continue to rise. BIA/Kelsey believes local digital media business will grow at 12.7% gains -- comprising 26% of all local revenue in 2016 and reaching $38.5 billion.

For all of 2011, local digital media amounted to $21.2 billion -- 16% of local media business.