• by Wayne Friedman , May 17, 2012

Local advertising will continue to grow at a tepid pace over the next five years.

BIA/Kelsey says local advertising will see a compounded annual growth rate of 2.6% through 2016, rising to $150 million from $132 million.

Major gains will be seen in mobile and online advertising -- nearly doubling to $21.8 billion in four years from $11.1 billion in 2011. That is a 14.4% growth rate. BIA/Kelsey says there will be a continued shift to digital media from traditional media and direct advertising.

The biggest category will be technology/telecom -- spending $5.1 billion by 2016, gaining 80.7%. Other top spending categories include retail at $4.5 billion, automotive rising to $2.6 billion, and health care totaling $815.3 million.

"While we expect to see changes in ad spending in some advertising categories, it is significant to note that television and radio continue to hold their own, while out-of-home, online and mobile are having an impact on the overall share," said Mark Fratrik, vice president and chief economist, BIA/Kelsey.

As for print, Fratrik adds: "Newspapers are also positioned very well to continue to drive online ad revenues."

The survey looks at 12 primary categories for advertisers from 94 detailed business categories, and 210 local television markets.