• by Doug Chavez , Columnist, May 9, 2013

“You guys might not know this, but I consider myself a bit of a loner. I tend to think of myself as a one-man wolf pack. But when my sister brought Doug home, I knew he was one of my own. And my wolf pack….it grew by one.”

Zach Galifianakis as Alan Garner –The Hangover

Each year I look forward to the first week in May. It marks the beginning of summer box office blockbusters. Secretly, I may even rank summer blockbuster season right up there as a fifth season. This season there are several movie franchises coming back for Xpeats; The Hangover III, Iron Man 3, Star Trek 2 and Fast and Furious is back for their sixth installment. What’s the winning formula to a successful threequel or Xpeat?

Many successful movie franchises, such as the Bourne, LOTR, Toy Story 3 and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Mans Chest, all had great openings at the box office. All the aforementioned had one thing in common, the same director returning, with the exception of Toy Story 3, although John Lasseter was heavily involved and one of the writers. John Favreau directed the last two Iron Man films but Shane Black directed the third installment. (Favreau still appears as the character “Happy”). Replacing the director on a threequal is risky. Iron Man 3 had a bigger opening than the two previous Iron Man releases – which is shocking because this fan was disappointed. The true measure of success beyond the almighty opening weekend is total ticket sales.  My prediction is that Iron Man 3 will not be the long-term winner. At the moment, it’s a wolf pack of one. 

The Hangover III is set to open late May.  The box office receipts will tell us if this Todd Phillips third directing The Hangover will have the same success that other threequels have experienced. The odds of the formula are in his favor. But the story line may be getting long in the tooth.

There are several other winning threequel formula attributes, such as ongoing storyline development, franchise legacy, and lead actor affinity. How many of you associate Harrison Ford with Indiana Jones and looked forward to seeing him in that role? Or Matt Damon as Jason Bourne? But what else can movie franchises do beyond the formula basics?

Many movie studios and their marketing departments are tapping into social media insights to help guide their marketing efforts.  I’ve talked with several script writers about character insights they consider in upcoming films taking their nod from what moviegoers are saying and sharing across the social landscape. Of course, nobody will speak on record about this, so don’t expect to see folks from the WGA or Studio heads talking publicly about the topic.  We already know that studios closely monitor Twitter and other social platforms on opening weekend to adjust marketing messaging and in some cases target ticket-buying audiences to drive opening weekend sales. Just look at the power Roger Ebert had on Twitter to sway audiences. It’s no surprise that studios and their writers are tapping into the BIG DATA of social sharing to ensure their franchises have every advantage to perform box office magic.

Will Iron Man 3 be a wolf pack of one or joined by other threequel wolves? Time will tell. In the meantime, save me an aisle seat this summer, pass the popcorn and remember – no tweeting during the movie!