• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, June 3, 2014

While Father’s Day is never the retail blowout that moms have come to enjoy, it is a big moment for spotting retail trends. And it looks like this year, “experience” gifts -- such as tickets to a big game or dinner -- and gift cards will be most popular.

The National Retail Federation -- which expects Father’s Day spending to decline a bit to $12.5 billion -- is predicting those who celebrate the day to spend $113.80, compared with $119.84. Some 42.6% of the respondents to its survey, conducted by Prosper Insights and based on 6,540 adults, say they’ll treat their father to an event or meal, spending $2.5 billion. Gift cards come next at $1.8 billion, closely followed by apparel, (including the ever-popular neckties and gag barbecue aprons) which will also represent $1.8 billion in spending.

Unlike the NRF, however, Brand Keys expects an increase in spending, with its research indicating shoppers will spend 7.5% more on dad this year than last -- on par with increases in Mother’s Day spending. And it also says it expects more people to mark the day than last year, rising 3% to 78% -- spending an average of $145.

Brand Keys, with data based on 5,500 respondents, says that after a dining excursion, with 48% of respondents expecting to take Dad out for a meal, it expects gift cards to be the most popular gift, purchased by 45%. (That’s up 6% from last year.)

And like the NRF, it notes less interest in electronic gifts for dad. “After all, how many tablets or e-readers does one Dad need?” says Robert Passikoff, founder and president, Brand Keys, the New York-based brand loyalty and customer engagement research consultancy, in a release.

Also up: Tools and automotive gifts, and wine and spirits, each up 5%. And appearing on the survey in a meaningful way for the first time, proving dads are getting more open-minded all the time? Spa services.