Commentary

The Unstoppable Growth Of Programmatic Is Going To Kill Jobs

Darn it, I really wanted to write a rant about Twitter profiles from people that put a #hashtag #in #front #of #every #word #in #their #profile. Or people that qualify their profile with monikers like  #thoughtleader or #insert-other-pretentious-claptrap-here.

But alas, events in programmatic last week forced me to ditch my plans, and focus once again on programmatic’s unstoppable rise and rise. A Google search on the topic yields 1,720,000 results (in 0.39 seconds), more than double the amount of the other topic du jour: Millennials (695,000 results in 0.41 seconds). Sidebar: According to the Huffington Post, research has revealed that Millennials can't sew or do laundry as well as their parents or grandparents. They are, however (I witness on a daily basis), very good at Minecraft and Terraria, something their parents and grandparents are terrible at.

So let’s quickly recap last week’s news.

First, there was fresh data via eMarketer on the state of the programmatic category. Two words: stupendous growth. Triple digit in 2015, and double-digit growth in 2016, to be precise.

advertisement

advertisement

And then there was news from IPG’s Mediabrands. The year 2013 was the first year of Mediabrands’ three-year journey that should ultimately lead to 50% of all of the company’s media trades being automated by 2015. That is 50% of ALL media, not just digital media. We also learned that by the end of 2013, IPG had automated pretty much all digital media trading at that point.

Last week, MediaPost reported a Mediabrands update that shows just how much IPG CEO Matt Seiler was not kidding two years ago. That’s right, local TV airtime buying is now automated. We are hurtling toward a (near) future where if I am P&G and want to buy TV reach among mothers with babies for Pampers, or if I am Toyota and am in the market for Millennials for the Camry, I can buy them through an algorithm, without the time-consuming intervention of media agency buyers and TV airtime sellers.

Short intermission: Have you seen the new Toyota 2015 Camry spot? A woman, who looks so young we can only assume she was allowed to borrow Daddy’s brand new Camry, buys a guitar called Lucille at an auction and somehow finds her way (in said Camry) to the previous owner, one B.B. King (age 89),  to reunite the two. “One bold choice leads to another” is the new slogan. Good luck attracting Millennials with that effort, Camry, through a medium that Millennials are deserting faster than you can buy GRPs (unless you’re buying them through Mediabrands’ programmatic local TV exchange, of course).

I have written about the rise of the machines in media a number of times. For a recent client meeting, I did some further digging on the effect trade automation has had on Wall Street. I already knew that automated trades of equities, futures and options far exceed 80% today, up from the low 20s percentage-wise at the beginning of this century, per research firm Aite Group. Aite also published results from a study among 15 institutional brokerage firms in Q4 of 2012, which showed that only 27% of brokerage firms expected their staffing levels of broker-to-client trade support to remain the same. All others reported declines of between 5% and 50%. Nobody reported the need to increase staffing.

If you are earning a paycheck buying or selling media, I would take that evening course in data analytics starting this week!

6 comments about "The Unstoppable Growth Of Programmatic Is Going To Kill Jobs".
Check to receive email when comments are posted.
  1. Seth Ulinski from Independent Analyst and Consultant, October 20, 2014 at 2:54 p.m.

    Nice write-up, Maarten. Interesting to see IPG has actually stayed ahead of its lofty automation goals. Completely on board with continuing education -- although whether or not being shackled to the confines of a classroom (or paying) is up for debate. Also, while folks are buffing up on probability and stats, understanding the technical nuances of databases, APIs and how they interface/interoperate isn't a bad a bad route either. Just as AI and programmatic are on the rise, so will the need for people who can manage the respective platforms.

  2. Rick Monihan from None, October 21, 2014 at 9:57 a.m.

    This is always the great fear of progress. Automation will kill jobs. People fail to then take the next step and see which jobs it can, or does, create.
    Farriers are gone, we no longer shoe our horses. But the loss of the farrier has seen growth in auto supply store retailers, mechanics, and gas stations.
    While I have no doubt programmatic will reduce some headcounts, I have every faith there will be needs which today are currently overlooked or understaffed that will need to be filled.

  3. Maarten Albarda from Flock Associates (USA), October 21, 2014 at 11:03 a.m.

    Hey Rick: my point was not job losses in the absolute, but the loss of specifically the job of media buyers at media agencies and media sellers on the sales side. Hence my last sentence to reinvent yourself if you're a current spreadsheet jockey.

  4. Gordon Hotchkiss from Out of My Gord Consulting, October 21, 2014 at 12:31 p.m.

    Hey Maarteen...when you are ready to rant about #...you can follow up where I left off: http://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/223266/meaningless-crap.html

  5. Jonathan Latzer from MarketJon, October 21, 2014 at 5:02 p.m.

    Yup the world is changing but NO media sellers and NO media buyers? Probably not. That's a pretty big generalization. We all know programmatic is moving quickly but in a world of pure automation someone has to watch the campaign, no? Someone's got to optimize the campaign, no? Someone is going to integrate into custom content and "natively" integrate a brand into content because that's the other side of every article today, right? Computer to computer, I guess. But, if that's the case, I guess we don't need anyone writing about anything anymore, right?

  6. Maarten Albarda from Flock Associates (USA), October 21, 2014 at 5:30 p.m.

    @Gordon: great ranters think alike!

    @Jon: I don't think it will eliminate all buyer/seller jobs. But in the investment world it has lead to a decrease of over 60% of traditional traders. I think there will always be a role for some specialty media buyers and sellers who will be responsible for the deals around things like Olympics, NFL, Oscars, etc. But that will require a vastly smaller workforce than today.

    And yes, there will be new jobs in data analytics and management. But those are for people with a very different DNA than today's buyers/sellers.

Next story loading loading..