Predicting the demise of online display advertising has become something of an industry pastime, with doomsayers pointing at various times to rivals including search, video, and native ads as the likely culprits. But all this preemptive gloating doesn't seem to be making much of an impression at all on display ads, which will continue to grow insolently at a double-digit rate -- in open defiance of literally hundreds of whitepapers and keynotes.
That’s according to eMarketer, which forecasts total U.S. digital display ad revenues rising from $27.05 billion this year to $37.36 billion in 2017, with social media getting a growing share. Facebook and Twitter alone will grab a third (33.7%) of the total in 2017. Facebook’s display revenues will increase from $6.82 billion this year -- a one-quarter share -- to $10.04 billion in 2017, for a 26.9% share. Meanwhile, Twitter’s display revenues will grow from $1.34 billion this year -- a 5% share -- to $2.54 billion in 2017, for a 6.8% share.
The eMarketer forecast notes that Twitter’s display revenues will pass Yahoo’s this year. Indeed, even though Yahoo’s display revenues should return to growth in 2015, increasing from $1.24 billion this year to $1.29 billion in 2017, its total share will actually shrink from 5.5% in 2014 to 4.6% this year, and 3.5% in 2017.
Over the same period AOL’s display revenues will edge up from $940 million this year to $1.19 billion in 2017, while its share will dip from 3.5% to 3.2%. Google’s display revenues will increase from $3.52 billion this year to $4.13 billion in 2017, but its share will slide from 13.7% in 2014 to 13% this year, and 11.1% by 2017. LinkedIn’s display revenues will increase from $310 million in 2015 to $430 million in 2017, and its share will remain steady at around 1.1%.
The forecast also noted that Facebook and Twitter will enjoy display growth driven by mobile. Separately, eMarketer has predicted that mobile will account for half (49%) of all digital advertising spend this year, rising to 60.4% in 2016, and reaching 72.2% by 2019. In dollar terms, eMarketer has mobile spending jumping from $28.7 billion this year to $40.5 billion in 2016, and $65.9 billion by 2019. As a proportion of total media ad spending, mobile advertising will jump from 15.3% this year to 20.4% in 2016, reaching 28.6% in 2019. Mobile display in particular will increase to $20.8 billion in 2016 and $33.9 billion by 2019.