TV Ad Revenue Gains Expected To Be Near Flat In Q3

Against the backdrop of TV ratings' continued decline -- anywhere from 5% to 10% -- TV advertising revenues are expected to remain near flat for the third-quarter reporting period -- partly due to growing advertising inventory supplies.

Broadcast and cable networks are expected to slip just 0.7% in the third quarter, according to MoffettNathanson Research. The four top broadcast networks will be down 1.2% to $3.06 billion, with cable off 0.4% to $5.11 billion.

This is an improvement over a previous overall TV estimate of a 1.7% decline for the period.

These revenues come against a sharply lower third quarter with prime-time C3 18-49 ratings -- which was down 8%; and for the first week of the new TV season, off 10% in prime-time C3 and 8% in total day.



One of the contributing factors in helping maintain national advertising revenue has been an increase in advertising inventory. Total commercial hours for advertising-supported cable rose 4% in the third quarter to 38,435; with broadcast networks rising 1%.

AMC Networks was up 11% (to 1,899); Time Warner and Walt Disney each adding 5% to their cable network groups (2,724 and 1,950 respectively); A+E Networks was up 4% (2,323); Scripps Networks Interactive adding 3% (2,403); and Fox cable networks up 2% (3,089).

Two of the larger cable network groups witness mostly unchanged ad inventory additions: NBCU up 1% to 5,869 and Viacom inching on 1% to 7,095.

For the broadcasters, NBC added 4% in the third quarter to 214; ABC gained 2% to 202; CBS was flat at 225; and Fox trimmed 3% to 44.

2 comments about "TV Ad Revenue Gains Expected To Be Near Flat In Q3 ".
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  1. Leonard Zachary from T___n__, October 13, 2015 at 3:48 p.m.

    Les, Barry & David on CNBC : What me worry?

  2. Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics Inc, October 14, 2015 at 9:31 a.m.

    Wayne, when you refer to "TV" rating declines of 5-10%, I take it that this is based on adults 18-49 and it applies mostly to primetime broadcast network entertainment fare, plus some cable channel content. I doubt that the same level of rating declines applies to all adults nor to the older groups and there are other dayparts and platforms. So we aren't talking about "TV" we're talking about one segment of TV, representing, perhaps, 35% of the average 18-49s total usage of the medium. How much rating "slippage" is taking place for TV viewing among 18-49 in all time periods, counting the broadcast TV networks, all basic cable channels and syndicated programs? I'm sure that MoffettnNathanson has that data.

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