• by Philip Rosenstein , Staff Writer, December 3, 2015

Top Republican candidate Dr. Ben Carson has started to experience a significant dip in the polls. He polled at 29% in a national NBC/Wall Street Journal poll as recently as late October. A trip to Jordan and a refugee camp tour did little to quell worries about Carson’s foreign policy knowledge.

A Quinnipiac poll through Nov. 30 has Carson sliding into third place nationally, behind Marco Rubio and statistically tied with Ted Cruz. Support for Carson’s candidacy has waned in recent weeks, but this is the first time since at least September, he is out of the top two spots.

Behind Donald Trump, we now have Rubio at 17%, with Cruz and Carson at 16%. Rubio has been solidly polling at the top of the pack for months and strong debate performances have helped. We are beginning to see the success of both Rubio and Cruz that many pundits have been predicting.

The Carson dip comes despite heavy spending from his campaign.

Over $20 million of the $31.4 million raised has already been used. Regardless of the money he has left to spend over the next 10 weeks, the problem with his candidacy is now the question of competence. Those types of issues won’t have a quick fix, especially in the wake of the Paris attacks and heightened focus on national security.

Carson’s loss of support among evangelicals is part of the reason for his weaker poll numbers. He enjoyed strong support from white evangelicals, getting up to 32% of that demographic in past polls. In that same group, he now stands at 19%, with a large portion of his lost votes going directly to rival Ted Cruz.

His fall among evangelicals may have something to do with his measured response to the Planned Parenthood shootings. Carson spoke of the need to stop the “hateful rhetoric, no matter which side it comes from, right or left.” In response to his comment, conservative radio personality popular among evangelicals, Steve Deace, published an article titled, “Ben Carson throws pro-lifers under the bus.”

Another bad omen for the future of the Carson campaign is the announced drop out of Bill Millis, one of the biggest donors to the Carson cause and a member of the campaign’s three-person board of directors. According to an interview, Millis still thinks Carson would make the best president, but no longer thinks he can work successfully with campaign staff.

We may be seeing Carson’s final lap as his setbacks look difficult to overcome. With Carson out of the way, the candidates waiting in the wake can focus their attention on the Trump problem.