Commentary
Clinton Looks To Wrap Up Democratic Race On Tuesday
- by Philip Rosenstein , Staff Writer, February 29, 2016
Hillary Clinton took the South Carolina Democratic primary in typical front-runner style. Winning with a whopping 73.5% of the vote to Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 26%, the campaign of the former Secretary of State heads to Super Tuesday with wind in its sails.
On "Meet the Press" yesterday, Chuck Todd grilled the Vermont Senator on the dismal South Carolina results: “You lost African American voters 84 to 16, worse than any poll had shown. Senator, what happened?”
Sanders responded appropriately in his straightforward manner: “Well, we got decimated, that’s what happened.” He did single out one silver lining to the poor results, having won the under 29 years of age vote and doing “well with African American young people, as well as white young people.”
The younger generation is clearly more in tune with the message of dramatic change espoused by Sanders, in addition to the South Carolina vote, he won 83% of young people in New Hampshire and 84% in Iowa.
While that demographic surely helped pave Obama’s path to the White House, it probably won’t be enough to unsettle the political mettle of the Clinton campaign.
In the first three Democratic primary/caucus states, young voters (18-29) made up less than 20% of the electorate. Young people have generally lower turnout rates. Even in 2008, less than 50% of that demographic made it to the voting booth in November. Should she be the nominee, Clinton would be lucky to drive a similar turnout.
Polls have Clinton cleaning up on Super Tuesday. Following her performance in South Carolina, that looks increasingly likely. In all but one Super Tuesday state, his home Vermont, Sanders trails Clinton and in many of those by a significant margin.
Sanders’ path to the nomination is looking progressively hazier and Tuesday’s contests could erase those completely.
There is a slight caveat: The State Department will release a final batch of 4,000 pages of Clinton emails on Monday, one day before March 1. But whether anything in the release will change anyone’s vote is yet to be seen.
I am quite sure the loss of the young vote will "unsettle the mettle" of the Clinton campaign, as well as her political hopes. Recognizing the power of that demographic is long over due. Either way, a baby boomer will win the White House this coming term. We have the a choice between the dynastic family Clinton, and a real estate tycoon celebrity. Losing the confidence of the young will undermine an adminstration by either baby boomer, and is one fatal flaw in electing either candidate.
The idea that losing the Millennial vote won't be enough to "unsettle the mettle" of the Clinton campaign really shows how the generational lines in this campaign between two baby boomers is lining up. We have a choice between a woman' of dynastic family and a celebrity businessman. Neither of them appeal to the Millennials and its the Millennials who will be footing the bill for now the fourth baby boomer president. Even if the campaign goes smoothly, the adminstration doesn't stand a chance without a constiutency born after 1965.
Very interesting points, Anglyn - David Axelrod said on Face the Nation yesterday, "the antidote to the enthusiasm gap for Hillary Clinton (ie. her trouble generating the same excitement from young people that Sanders has been able to), should she be the nominee, is Donald Trump and perhaps the Supreme Court debate." To your point -- yes, getting that "constituency born after 1965" will be crucial to Clinton's success, but it can be argued that aversion to Trump will fuel that vote. She does have to do more to galvanize the younger vote, though.