We didn’t have a double-digit number of states voting, but Tuesday’s results both solidified certain realities and set the stage for important votes coming up on March 15, most notably in Florida and Ohio.
The Democrats voted in Mississippi and Michigan last night, with Hillary routing Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in the former, and Sanders picking up a tight win in the latter.
Republicans picked their nominee in the two states where Democrats voted, followed by contests in Idaho and Hawaii. Ohio Gov John Kasich emerged as a more serious contender, leapfrogging Sen. Marco Rubio in a number of states.
1. Donald Trump continues to dominate across the Republican party. With his wins in Michigan, Mississippi and Hawaii last night, Trump continues to dominate the Republican primary race. Despite vicious attacks from party leaders, including from former Republican presidential nominees, Mitt Romney and John McCain, support for the real-estate mogul is not significantly waning.
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Efforts to deny Trump the number of delegates to win the GOP nomination before the convention are becoming increasingly desperate as the front-runner continues to rack up wins.
Exit polls last night showed that Mississippi GOP voters were overwhelmingly evangelical and heavily conservative. Conversely, in Michigan, the exits showed a much smaller number of religious conservatives and an increase in the number of self-styled independents. Trump won both states convincingly. The big question: Can he repeat that performance in other Rust-Belt states with similar demographics?
2. Michigan voters fan the Bern. Amid an expected rout in Mississippi, Bernie Sanders had a confidence-boosting result in the delegate-heavy state of Michigan, beating Hillary Clinton 49.9% to 48.2%.
The two remaining Democratic candidates debated in Flint, Michigan, over the weekend and news outlets pointed to a Sanders loss in that debate. What stuck out were some terse snaps at Clinton during some of his responses and difficulties in answering questions focused on race.
That, paired with recent polling that showed Hillary Clinton in the lead by over 20 points in Michigan, prompted many to assume a comfortable night for the former Secretary of State. Incredibly, FiveThirtyEight had Clinton’s chances of winning the Michigan primary at over 99%.
Sanders hopes these results bode well for him in other Northern, mostly white and working-class states, like Ohio, which votes March 15.
3. Rubio’s road to the nomination is all barricaded. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is turning into the Jeb Bush of the mid-late primary season. Some numbers are falling to single digits, calls for him to leave the race are mounting. Until recently, he was considered the best option for an increasingly conservative GOP establishment.
GOP leaders are not getting the message, having cycled through unsuccessful candidates over the past eight or so months. Scott Walker fell, Jeb Bush fell, and now Rubio will likely suffer the same fate.
Some are asking Rubio to get out before he embarrasses himself in Florida, a loss which could have serious ramifications for his political career going forward. Salting the wound, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who now looks to be the only alternative to Trump, pulled a similar trick on Rubio in Hawaii as he did on Ben Carson in Iowa.
The GOP race promises to get even more rocky as “Lyin’ Ted” goes up again “Donald the Con Artist.”