National
TV advertising revenues is estimated to see flat results in the second quarter -- an improvement over declines from previous periods.
Michael Nathanson, senior research analyst at
MoffettNathanson, writes in a note: “Given that improvement and an increase in ad units, we estimate that national TV advertising will also rebound close to flat versus five sequential quarters
of low-to mid-single digit declines.”
Overall, national TV is projected to slip 0.5% to $9.2 billion.
Nathanson sees broadcast networks collectively down 2.6% to $3.25 billion in
the period; cable TV networks groups, in total, slightly up 0.7% to $5.96 billion.
These results were fueled by national TV ratings (broadcast and cable) -- now at a 6% decline in prime-time
Nielsen C3 rating of 18-49 viewers. Nielsen C3 ratings are the average viewing minute ratings plus three days of time-shifting.
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Broadcast networks were down 9% in the second quarter to average
4.7 million; and 5% lower for cable to 14.9 million.
Previous quarterly drops were 9% in the (first quarter 2018); 13% (fourth quarter 2017); 14% (third quarter 2017); 14% (second quarter
2017); and 8% (first quarter 2017).
Of the broadcast networks, Fox did the best of the losers -- thanks to the World Cup -- down 5% (to 944,000 prime-time C3 18-49 viewers); ABC off 14% (1.46
million); NBC, losing 14% (to 1.19 million); and CBS, 18% lower (to 1.03 million).
Nathanson expects Fox’s national TV revenues to be up 9.8% in the second quarter; ABC to be flat; NBC
(including its TV stations ad revenues), down 2.6%; and CBS, losing 9.8%.
For cable networks' TV groups, he projects Fox channels will grow 3% (to $645 million); Discovery (including Scripps
Networks Interactive but not OWN) up 2.5% ($1.05 billion); Time Warner, 2% more ($1.14 billion); NBCUniversal, 1.1% higher ($916 million); Walt Disney, flat ($1.04 billion); AMC Networks, losing 2%
($241 million); and Viacom, down 3% ($926 million).