• by Wayne Friedman , April 12, 2019

Stock-market investors gave Walt Disney a strong, positive reaction to its Disney+ announcement -- its stock is up 10% in early Friday trading to $127.35.

For its Investor Day in Burbank, California on Thursday, Disney touted some aggressive growth for Disney+, it yet-to-be-launch on-demand streaming service. It estimates 60 million to 90 million worldwide subscribers in five years, around 20 million to 30 million coming in the U.S.

Two analysts -- Bernstein Research and MoffettNathanson Research -- estimate Disney+ will get to 55 million in five years -- at which time, they expect profitability.

Ultimately, when it comes to subscriber guidance, there are ample ways to secure them, including discounting and increased content-marketing investment,” says Todd Juenger, media analyst at Bernstein Research,

Disney said by 2024 it expects ESPN+ to grow subscribers to between 8 million to 12 million, from 2 million now. For its Hulu digital video platform (for all its on-demand services), it looks to get to 40 million to 60 million, from 25 million this year.

One big reveal was Disney+ pricing -- at a low $6.99 a month, much less than competitors like Netflix.

“The disclosure of the low price point generated a collective gasp in the room,” says Michael Nathanson, senior research analyst, MoffettNathanson Research.

One key concern is content licensing licensing. Disney executives talked up TV and movie content being exclusive to Disney’s streaming service. Bernstein’s Juenger wondered how this would affect the $7 billion to $8 million in content-licensing revenues for Disney.

“The guidance from Disney calls for $2.5 billion of content licensing moving from third-party to internal. That still leaves roughly $5 billion by our estimates. We believe this is mostly Fox (TV and movies) and ABC content licensed primarily internationally. So its ultimate fate is tied to if and when Disney rolls out Hulu globally.”