At Walt Disney's investor day last month, Randy Freer, CEO of Hulu, said the digital video ad industryis expected to surpass $50 billion within the next three years.
Figure a couple of years after that, it could be a $70 billion market.
At that level, the digital video marketplace would be on par with where the total TV advertising market is now: $70 billion. (The digital video advertising market was $28 billion last year.)
When digital video equals total TV, at that point (most probably sometime before) we won’t be speaking about whether traditional TV will be taking back money from digital, or whether digital will be growing faster than traditional TV. Or whether TV is stronger "brand safety"-wise than digital.
Virtually all TV will be digitally distributed via broadband.
At a certain level, TV and media executives believe there will always be an upfront market -- where brands will secure, ahead of time, the content they want. No matter how many audience segments one can divvy up -- all to compete with digital media players -- there still needs to be scale to grab the most most-viewed and most engaged content.
What about addressable and/or auction-based TV buying systems? Sure -- but as a function to get ahead of your competition. AT&T will still need to compete against Verizon, and Toyota versus Honda, and Macy’s versus Kohl’s, even with the juggernaut Amazon.
Will similarly competing brands look at totally different segments of consumers? Not exactly.
The only question: Will those upfront after-parties remain for media executives? If not, perhaps we can go to parties virtually, with Google’s new augmented reality smart glasses headgear.
Only $999. Shrimp, cocktails and chummy conversation not included.