How can the game of cricket -- which is popular in the United Kingdom, India, Australia, Pakistan, and West Indies nations -- be a tipping point for all financial prospects for
Disney+?Because that game -- especially in India, with a population of 1.40 billion people -- has a core audience of fervent fans.
New rights fees
for the Indian Premier League, the professional organization for that sport in India, could be triple what currently Disney+ Hotstar platform is paying now -- a $2.5 billion five-year deal that ends
after this season.
Professional sports in the U.S. are a key piece of the puzzle for TV platforms and networks around the world.
The bigger issue is what happens if Disney doesn't get
the deal -- with the likes of Apple, Amazon, YouTube, Sony and others as likely potential bidders. Analysts estimate that Disney+Hotstar could see a dramatic drop in the 43 million some-odd
subscribers.
All that could put the kibosh on Disney's goal of
reaching 230 million to 260 million subscribers for its Disney + streaming service by September 2024.
The positive viewpoint is that Disney might not be overly concerned about losing
the big cricket game and how it might affect Disney+ Hotstar, because the service currently is a weak financial performer as a service -- earning just 61 cents a month per Indian user in the
all-important and closely followed average monthly revenue per user (ARPU).advertisement
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Compare this to the $6.32 ARPU in North America and $6.35 number in international markets. Not so
good.
This is not new when it comes to major sports-rights fee gains for highly prized televised sports content everywhere. At certain price levels, TV networks/distributors have backed
away.
In the U.S., for example, Hulu+Live TV, YouTube TV, Sling TV, and other new and traditional network distributors have eschewed making deals with regional sports networks -- all because
right fees are too high and profit margins are slim to none.
Last year, Fox Corp. bowed out from higher bidding for NFL's “Thursday Night Football”, won by Amazon.
In cricket, a key moment in any match can typically come when a batsman is called “out.” Rules demand that the ‘bowling’ team -- the team on the field with a
‘bowler” throwing a ball -- needs to shout for a specific confirming action from the umpire.
Disney might want to do this if they want out of cricket. The customarily loud request
in a cricket match to an umpire goes like this:
“How's that!?”