Due to rising competition and high inflation, subscription video-on-demand platform Netflix will slip in U.S. viewers for the first time ever -- by 2.3% to 169.3 million, according to eMarketer’s Insider Intelligence.
The definition of viewers here, according to eMarketer, is individuals who watch at least once per month via a Netflix app or website.
But Netflix won’t be in negative territory for long. It is projected to see gains in 2023 through 2026 of around 1.6% to 1.7% per year.
Netflix will have a 65.6% share of all digital video viewers this year -- down from 68.4% a year ago.
In contrast, Disney+ is estimated to see steady, unimpeded growth through 2026. Disney+ viewers are projected to grow 13.6% in 2022 versus a year ago to 108.7 million viewers.
As with Netflix, the definition of viewers here is people of any age who watch Disney+ via an app/website at least once per month.
These results will give Disney+ a 42.1% market share in 2022, projected to rise to 53.7% in 2026.
Looking at subscribers, the most recent estimates say that Netflix has 73.3 million U.S. and Canadian subscribers, while Disney+ has 44.5 million U.S. and Canadian subscribers.
Overall, the dominant OTT platform remains YouTube -- with 231.5 million viewers, under the same eMarketer viewing definition.
Netflix is next (169.3 million), followed by Amazon Prime Video (152.6 million); Hulu (122.8 million); Disney+ (108.7 million); HBO Max (84 million); Peacock (61.7 million); ESPN+ (48.6 million); and Apple TV+ (38.7 million).