Despite the concerns of U.S. TV station owners over a possible economic downturn and other issues, Nexstar Media Group -- the U.S.’s largest TV station owner -- is in a strong position to
“weather any macro headwinds,” according to Guggenheim Securities.The major station group has lowered its focus around “core” advertising, which now
represents around 33% of its overall revenues, compared to around 80% in 2008-2009, according to media analyst Curry Baker.
Total Nexstar revenues are projected to be $1.4 billion
this year.
Nexstar’s retransmission revenues are now about 53% of its 2022/2023 revenues. At the same time, political advertising continues to grow -- estimated to hit $505 million
for the company this year, near the total its record results in the 2020 Presidential election year, when it was $508 million.
Baker estimates that total 2022 revenues will land
at $5.2 billion, and will then slip to $5.1 billion in 2023.
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Net income projections for 2022 are $1.0 billion, and for 2023, the projection is $862 million.
This all helps
to buffer a lower outlook on core advertising in the second half of 2022 and the first half of 2023 -- also due to a possible overall economic downturn.
Guggenheim says local core advertising
“continues to hold up reasonably well”currently but that national TV advertising is “soft,” while national TV ads comprise around 25% of its core advertising.
Guggenheim estimates core advertising will total $1.73 billion this year and $1.68 billion in 2023.
With regard to its recent acquisitions of The CW network, Baker
estimates the broadcast network will continue to take on $250 million in net losses for the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first half of 2023.