• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, November 3, 2022

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The National Retail Federation released its holiday forecast, with this latest snow-globe report anticipating a gain of between 6% and 8% this holiday season. That’s substantially lower than the sizzling 13.5% gain last year.

The current inflation rate of 8.2% means spending will essentially be flat or somewhat lower.

Still, the NRF describes the prediction -- calling for a total of between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion -- as “healthy.” It notes that last year’s outsized gains shattered records, and that holiday retail sales gains have averaged 4.9% over the past 10 years.

“While consumers are feeling the pressure of inflation and higher prices, and while there is continued stratification with consumer spending and behavior among households at different income levels, consumers remain resilient,” said Matthew Shay, president and CEO, in the NRF's announcement. “In the face of these challenges, many households will supplement spending with savings and credit to provide a cushion and result in a positive holiday season.”

The research, conducted with Prosper Insights & Analytics, anticipates a gain of between 10% and 12% in non-store sales, even as customers dial back online shopping and head back to the mall.

Describing this season as “anything but typical,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz adds that the earlier kickoff has given consumers a chance to show they’re willing to spend this season. “Despite record levels of inflation, rising interest rates and low levels of confidence, consumers have been steadfast in their spending and remain in the driver’s seat.”

The NRF’s forecast is more or less in line with earlier predictions. Deloitte predicts a rise of 4% and 6% compared to last year. MasterCard Spending Pulse expects a gain of 7.1%, and the ICSC (formerly known as the International Council of Shopping Centers), an increase of 6.7%.

Others are more conservative. The Conference Board expects a decrease overall, with spending on gifts dropping to an average of $613 from $648 last year. It does expect an increase in non-gifts expenditures to $393 compared to $374 last year, reflecting surging food prices.

On a per-consumer basis, the NRF forecasts spending of an average of $832.84, including gifts and holiday items such as decorations and food.