Increasing time-spent on apps will continue to drive mobile advertising spend in 2023, but at a slower rate, due to economic headwinds and slower growth in overall ad spend, according to a new forecast from mobile data analytics provider data.ai.
The forecast calls for global mobile ad spend to slow from 14% in 2022 to 7.5% in 2023, to reach total spend of $362 billion. The five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is projected at 18.5%. Mobile ad-spend growth peaked at 26.3% in 2020 and slipped to 22.9% in 2021.
Despite challenges for Facebook and most other social media platforms, short video apps are expected to help drive mobile ad spend.
In addition, spending on brand advertising is expected to help counter the effects of decreased performance marketing spend resulting from tightened overall marketing budgets.
Other major 2023 trends:
Consumer gaming spending will dip. Mobile gaming is projected to drop 5% in 2022 to $110 billion, and 3% in 2023 to $107 billion, due to factors including Apple’s privacy opt-in, Google’s upcoming privacy changes, and a 2023 crackdown on fingerprinting expected to impact user acquisition.
Consumer spend will continue to migrate to experiences. Consumers will continue to shift their now-squeezed discretionary spending from consumables to experiences, with mobile increasingly the preferred purchasing channel.
Downloads of travel and ticketing apps are projected to see a 47% increase in 2023. Live events like concerts and shows will take priority over in-home purchases, and live sports — both in-person and on-screen — will continue to command growing amounts of free time.
More apps will join the $3-billion “club.” HBO Max and iQIYI will join Disney+, Netflix, YouTube and TikTok in reaching $3 billion in lifetime consumer spending on video streaming and short video apps. Fourteen others exceed the $2 billion mark, including Call of Duty, Uma Musume Pretty Derby, and Bumble.
Global hours spent on mobile are projected to grow from about 4.1 trillion in 2022 to 4.5 trillion in 2023, and hit 6 trillion by 2028. The five-year CAGR is projected at 6%.
“We are starting to see a leveling off in mobile spend following the surge seen during the pandemic, although it’s still significantly higher than where we were in 2019,” notes data.ai Head of Insights Lexi Sydow. “Mobile will remain at the heart of consumers' lives as demand for digital connection, self-expression and deepening personalization of apps will fuel sustained growth in time spent.”