• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, October 3, 2023

Etsy’s sugary macaron ornaments

Etsy is ready for the start of the holiday selling season, predicting a stockingful of style trends likely to appear on people’s gift lists. The online marketplace bases trend predictions -- from mantelscaping to memory-making -- on the number of searches and purchases in recent weeks and months.

Among the seasonal winners, Etsy expects to see a surge in just about anything made by hand, with those searches soaring 16-fold in the last three months.

Other themes are emerging:

*Gingerbread Girl Full of gingham looks and rustic shapes, Etsy describes this one as “Cottagecore’s baking-obsessed sister.” Look for cozy products and textures, including foraged décor, ruffled bedding and holiday cookie cutters.

*Mantelscaping The logical sequel to tablescaping, this trend includes tiny forest scenes, snow globes, garlands and mini villages. For example, there’s been an 86% jump in searches for candle lanterns, and a 67% hike in ceramic trees.

*Grandpa Chic That coastal grandmother trend is already passe. Grandpa Chic delivers a sense of history, comfort and warmth, with rich décor, dark woods and leathers in burgundy, olive green and tobacco brown. Sales of leather poufs have tripled, and searches for coasters made of either wood or marble have increased fourfold.

*Elevated entertaining Expect more dinner invitations as Etsy customers load up on zodiac tea towels, handmade barware and natural linen placemats. And there’s been a decrease of 33% in searches for disposable plates.

*Candycore Call this trend the natural result of all that Barbie pink clogging up the ecosphere. Etsy has seen a spike in sugary fantasies, complete with lollipops, candy canes and gumdrops. Searches for cotton candy cakes have doubled.

While Etsy’s predictions come as the industry braces for a challenging holiday season, some observers think the e-tailer is well positioned for a prosperous Christmas.

“We look favorably on the long-term outlook for Etsy, the go-to marketplace for made-to-order and unique products,” writes Seth Basham, an analyst who has just begun following Etsy for Wedbush. “Etsy’s strong market reach and a topnotch customer experience combine for a compelling value proposition for both buyers and sellers.”

He is also impressed with the ecommerce company’s investments in AI and machine learning, and Etsy’s ability to expand its advertising marketplace.

However, he is giving the company a neutral rating, pointing to the looming risks from rising gas prices and the restart of federal loan payments, “suggesting incremental consumer discretionary spending pressure in the fourth quarter.”