• by Wayne Friedman , September 5, 2024

Pay TV cord-cutting in the second quarter of 2024 resulted in a 1.6 million subscriber decline -- bringing the first six months of the year to a “mind-boggling” 4.08 million, according to MoffettNathanson Research estimates.

Each of the first and second quarters registered a 6.9% decline  versus the same periods the year before. In 2023, the first two quarters saw declines of 6.8%, with a collective decline of 4.07 million.

Total U.S. linear pay TV subscribers now stand at 68.8 million.

Taking out newer virtual pay TV services (YouTube TV and Hulu+Live TV, for example) the traditional pay TV systems (cable, satellite, telco) posted worse declines -- 12.6% in the second quarter and 12.3% in the first quarter. That total now stands at 49.8 million subscribers.

Virtual pay TV platforms posted a collective second-quarter gain of 49,000 -- a 12.4% increase versus the same period a year ago, now totaling 19 million. YouTube TV gained 50,000; Sling TV, 78,000; and DirecTV Now, 82,000. Posting losses: Hulu+Live TV, 100,000; and Fubo TV, down 21,000.

YouTube TV continues to be the leader among virtual pay TV, now at 8 million subscribers.

MoffettNathanson Research says converting those traditional pay TV subscribers -- who have abandoned services (cord-cutters) -- into virtual pay TV services -- continues at a modest pace in the period, a 29% conversion 12-month trailing rate.

The trailing 12-month rate of securing traditional pay TV subscribers has remained in the 25% to 30% range since the first quarter of 2020.

Lower subscriber numbers also mean declining overall affiliate fees for major TV network groups. Collectively, the top six TV network groups had affiliate revenues, sinking 6.3% in the second quarter to $8.5 billion. 

Walt Disney -- the biggest TV network group for affiliate revenue -- sank 6% in the period to $3.02 billion. The second-biggest group, Warner Bros. Discovery, fell 8% to $2.1 billion. Only one company, Fox Corp. witnessed growth, up 2% to $1.05 billion.