• by J. Walker Smith , Op-Ed Contributor, October 16, 2024

Citing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, soaring government deficits, tight labor markets and strikes in several industries, J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon wrote a year ago that “[t]his may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades.”

Last week, he doubled down, reiterating that “conditions are treacherous and getting worse,” with “significant human suffering” and “far-reaching effects…on the course of history.”

Gulp. Unfortunately, the facts bear him out. The world has become a much more dangerous place.

The Uppsala Conflict Data Program tracks nearly a doubling of armed conflicts worldwide since 2006.

All categories are up — warring states, state violence against civilians and non-state groups in conflict with one another. These results are mirrored by every index of global peace and conflict.

Gallup’s annual tracking of the global state of emotions finds an increase over this same period of time in its index of negative emotions. The recent trendline has improved slightly and positive emotions have always been more prevalent.

Nevertheless, the world today is characterized by an undercurrent of negativity that is stronger than ever.

This negativity shows up in other surveys. For example, economists have been puzzled by weak consumer sentiment in the U.S. — notwithstanding good and improving economic conditions and strong household balance sheets.

When you look closely at data like the University of Michigan’s tracking of consumer sentiment, you see that attitudes have been stuck at a level previously seen only during recessions. That’s the attitude of U.S. consumers — recessionary, a clear sign of worry.

Perhaps most worrisome is the direction of global values since the early 1980s. The World Values Survey includes a core set of 76 countries in which multiple waves of surveys have been fielded between 1981 and 2022.

A recently published analysis of this data finds that contrary to predictions that cultural values would converge over time on Western democratic values, countries have been diverging on many values, especially so-called emancipative or tolerant values.

Geography exerts more of an influence than economic well being, such that “values have diverged globally but converged regionally.”

As an example, the authors of this study cite results for Australia and Pakistan on the importance of children learning obedience. When Australians were first interviewed in the 1981-1984 wave, 39% agreed. When Pakistanis were first interviewed in the 1994-2004 wave, 32% agreed  — roughly equivalent.

In the most recent 2017-2022 wave, the percentages were 18% and 49%, respectively.

The authors observed that “similar fault lines emerged” between other Western and non-Western countries on many other values.

The climate in the U.S. is especially troubled. Not the least of which is the fractious presidential election just weeks away, which has included more than its fair share of unsettling and unprecedented events — two assassination attempts (with another incident under investigation), a last-minute withdrawal and swap at the top of a ticket, criminal convictions yet to be sentenced for one candidate, and high drama sure to come as the handful of swing states begin to count votes on election night.

Add to that disruptive protests over the war in Gaza, controversial Supreme Court decisions, high interest rates, extreme weather events, a labor strike (albeit short-lived) and school shootings that are nearly on track to set an annual record.

It's no surprise that people are on edge. It’s not unfair to see this upcoming election, at least in part, as a referendum on which candidate the majority feels is best suited to restore some sense of normality.

That’s going to be a tough job, however, no matter who wins. Because perils are not unique to this year, or even the past few years since the pandemic.

Volatility is up since the turn of the century. The World Uncertainty Index tracks the degree of uncertainty in the local business climate for the 143 countries covered by country analysts with the Economist Intelligence Unit consulting firm.

Aggregated globally, the average level of global uncertainty is up over the past quarter century.

More importantly, the volatility of swings between highs and lows has become much greater and more frequent.

This will not change any time soon. Volatility is the new normal.

This is the climate in which brands must operate.

Many brands have begun to adapt by pulling in on things like political involvement and by returning to the fundamentals of unit volume growth. Many retailers have been shoring up security as well as investing in AI technologies that enable them to respond to changing market conditions in real-time.

Consumers are hunkering down. They are not abandoning the marketplace  — far from it. But consumers are looking for more self-care, self-protection and self-reward, Not to turn away from the world at large, but to put greater emphasis on their own well being and mental health in a time when uncertainty and risks are around every corner.