• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, December 6, 2024

For the fifth time in five consecutive revisions, ad industry economist and newsletter publisher Brian Wieser has revised his U.S. ad-spending growth estimate for 2024 upward.

Wieser now estimates ad spending this year will grow 9.0%, excluding political advertising -- more than twice the expansion of 4.3% he forecast when he first benchmarked 2024's outlook in September 2023.

Wieser this morning also published an estimate that ad spending will grow 4.5% next year, down from a previously unpublished estimate of 5.3% growth in 2025.

Wieser's latest revision comes ahead of year-end updates expected to be released Monday by at least two of the major agency holding company forecasting units -- Interpublic's Magna and WPP's GroupM -- both of which Wieser previously served as chief forecaster before launching his own newsletter last year.

It also follows a series of upward quarterly and semi-annual revisions by those holding companies, as well as this week's year-end release by Dentsu, which markedly upgraded its outlook for both U.S. and worldwide ad spending through 2026.

"Looking towards next year with some (but far from all) clarity about the incoming presidential administration, it seems highly likely that its policies could have a significant impact on the U.S. advertising industry," Wieser writes, providing a balance sheet of pros and cons expected under the second Trump Administration, including:

Pros:

• General deregulation.

• Lower interest rates.

• Higher inflation (yes, Wieser argues it could be a good thing for ad spending).

• Restrictions on advertising in specific industries (ie., pharmaceutical).

• Reduced restrictions on mergers and acquisitions (ie., market consolidation).

• Higher tariffs (reduced at spending by foreign market brands advertising in the U.S.).

• Deportations (disruption in labor markets, fewer consumers to market to in the U.S.)