• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, January 7, 2025

As more people begin using popular weight-loss drugs, researchers are getting a clearer picture of the impact on the food industry. A new study from Cornell SC Johnson College of Business reports that the changes are more substantial than many initially expected and persist longer.

Working with Numerator, the consumer data company, researchers tracked consumer spending after at least one person in a household began taking medications like Ozempic and Wegovy, including people using the drug off-label.

Those off-label users -- people who are taking the drug for weight loss, as opposed to treatment for diabetes or another ailment -- made up half of the sample, and at least one-third are paying out of pocket and “are largely invisible in traditional insurance claims data,” the researchers write. “Overall, weight loss users are younger and wealthier than users taking GLP-1 medications for diabetes management.”

Off-label users are most likely to be between 35 and 64, while those treating diabetes are more likely to be 55-plus.

Households with at least one person on the medication cut their grocery spending by 6%, and those in higher income brackets reduced their grocery outlay by 9%.

The most significant changes involve fewer calorie-dense, processed items, including an 11% decline in savory snacks.

But paring back on calorie-rich snacks doesn’t mean these households spend more on healthy foods. The researchers detected moderate increases in just two categories: yogurt and produce.

The pared-back grocery budgets remain stable for the first six months and are still at play in the second six months, albeit to a lesser degree.

It’s undoubtedly hurting grocery sales. “Higher-income households, earning over $125,000, reduce their grocery spending by 8.6%, an annualized decrease of $690—more than double the 4.2% decline ($270 annually) observed among households earning less than $125,000.”

GLP-1 users are also cutting back on meals away from home, with “higher-income households reducing breakfast consumption, and lower-income households cutting back on dinners out.” 

Circana, the market research company, has found that the reductions in spending are greatest in the first three months of medication use and return closer to benchmark levels by the end of year one. As these GLP-1 consumers seek out healthier choices, experts say there are plenty of opportunities for brands, retailers and restaurants to offer choices that support their goals. Those include high-protein, ready-to-eat meals and portion-controlled snacks.

“A deeper understanding of GLP-1 medications and their roles in weight loss has unlocked new opportunities to enhance the food, beverage, and nonfood products that support consumers’ overall well-being,” says Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive vice president and chief advisor in the Chicago-based company’s recent analysis. “As accessibility, availability, and affordability of these medications improve, it will become critical for companies to develop strategies that support consumers on their health journeys.”