The National Retail Federation is predicting good news for Cupid, with a spending forecast of $25.8 billion on Valentine's Day. That’s a bit above the previous record of $27.4 billion, set in 2020. On a per-romantic basis, that amounts to an average of $188.81, up from 2024.
While the holiday continues to be one of the most predictable, typically weighing in as the most profitable day for America’s florists, jewelers and restaurants, there are some underlying changes this year.
More people will be celebrating, with 56% of consumers saying they’ll do something to observe the holiday, up from 53% last year. And the biggest change is among men, with 55% saying they plan to participate in Valentine’s Day, up from 51% in 2024.
The research is based on responses from about 8,000 U.S. adults.
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The NRF says total spending on significant others will likely reach a new record of $14.6 billion, up from last year’s $14.2 billion. Total spending on gifts for family members is projected to reach $4.3 billion, up from $4 billion in 2024.
Plenty of brands are already wooing shoppers. Candy is the most popular category, with 56% of celebrants planning to purchase, spending about $2.5 billion. Sweethearts, the OG Valentine's Day candy, is capitalizing on those intentions with a campaign spoofing young love’s reluctance to commit. The Bryan, Ohio-based company is moving past last year’s limited-edition run of “Situationship Boxes” to hard-core “Commitment Hearts.”
The confectionery company is making the “Marry Me,” “Move In?” and "4Ever Ever?" hearts scannable, taking users to websites where they can book a move, get married online or buy heart-shaped headstones.
The company says it’s basing the effort on research that shows Gen Z (84%) and millennials (82%) are sick of relationships with no clear definition. More than 90% said they want partners who say what they mean rather than sending mixed messages.
About 35% of the people in the NRF survey, conducted with Prosper Insights & Analytics, plan to celebrate with a night out. That may look different this year, too, with reservation platform OpenTable reporting dramatic shifts.
Among them? A sharp rise in people willing to make Valentine’s Day dinner a first date, a surge in "Galentine's Day" celebrations, and a remarkable yearning for new cuisines. Also on the rise: Valentine’s Day double dates.
Kitchen Aid hopes to get in on the restaurant action this year with a promotion aimed at the throngs of people who won’t be able to land reservations at the bistro of their dreams.
The Benton Harbor, Michigan-based appliance brand is cooking up a campaign with its version of recipes from iconic Chicago restaurants, including Baharat Roasted Cauliflower, Brazilian Cheese Bread, and Prime Rib French Dip.
Some will celebrate not with food but a workout: ClassPass is introducing “Sweat Your Heart Out” events, a nationwide series focusing on community-centric activities and team sports.