• by Wayne Friedman , March 17, 2025

Netflix could see even faster advertising growth than expected -- rising to $6 billion globally in 2027 and to nearly $10 billion in 2030, says MoffettNathanson Research.

“A major part of improving the ad offering at Netflix is transitioning from outsourcing ad capabilities to Microsoft to an in-house ad sales team and a tech stack that will enable enhanced targeting, additional measurement and reporting,” writes Robert Fishman, media analyst for MoffettNathanson.

In the U.S. and Canada market -- Netflix’s biggest -- it estimates 2025 advertising revenue will be $2.3 billion, from 24.4 million ad-tier subscribers.

This comes from assuming an average CPM (the cost per thousand viewers) of $30 and from an average ad load of nine 30-second ad spots per hour with a 75% sellout level.

It also assumes 1.5 hours of viewing per subscriber per day -- totaling 11.4 billion ad-supported streaming minutes.

Globally, MoffettNathanson projects advertising will more than double in 2025 to $3.1 billion, and then rise to $4.6 billion in 2026.

“Going forward, we expect advertising revenue growth in all regions to be driven by both subscriber growth and improved monetization as Netflix rolls out its first-party ad tech stack,” says Fishman.

As of the end of 2024, global ad-tier subscribers were estimated to have grown to 33 million -- 11% of its 301.6 million total worldwide. Those subscribers are projected to climb to 76.5 million in 2027 and 100 million in 2030.

At the same time, Fishman believes average revenue from subscriptions per subscriber will continue to soar for the dominant premium streaming platform leader.

In the U.S. and Canada alone -- Netflix’s largest revenue market -- the average revenue per member was up 10% to $17.20.

Subscription revenue is projected to get to $41.5 billion this year, $45.6 billion in 2026, and $49.5 billion in 2027.

Starting this year, pricing in the U.S. and Canada climbed again for the company’s two major ad-free subscription plans -- $24.99 a month for "Premium" ($22.99 previously) and $17.99 a month for “Standard” ($15.49.

Globally, the average revenue per subscriber was flat at $11.70.