• by Wayne Friedman , Yesterday

Talk of cable TV consolidation and disruption rose to new heights after last week’s announced $34.5 billion Charter Communications-Cox Communications deal.

“Smaller operators like Cox have struggled to retain broadband subs amid cord-cutting, largely due to limited ability to offer compelling, slimmed-down video packages and new bundles that include streaming services,” says a note from LightShed Partners.

“Charter’s scale and integration capabilities should give it a clear advantage in unlocking value that Cox could not realize on its own.”

On CNBC last week, MoffettNathanson Research co-founder and media analyst Craig Moffett added that the focus of this deal -- and possible future deals of its kind -- has little to do with still-declining legacy pay cable TV systems.

“I think this deal is mostly about wireless,” says Moffett. In the Charter-Cox press release, he says, it was key where mobile/wireless was mentioned not only ahead of cable TV but ahead of broadband, which has been the main focus of these original cable TV-focused companies for more than a decade and a half.

The broadband business has been under pressure with its own softness over the past few years, Nathanson says, and companies are now looking to the future.

“The wireless business is more than twice the size of the broadband business,” he adds, “and the cable operators have a lot more to gain than they have to lose, and they are gaining it on the mobile side.”

Lightshed Partners also says other mid-sized originally cable TV focused players like Altice USA are “already burdened by execution missteps and crippling leverage, facing a bleak strategic outlook.”

In addition to consolidation, analysts also have mentioned T-Mobile as a possible acquirer of the cable TV business. However, “it looks increasingly unlikely to make such a move. Regulatory risk is high,” says LightShed. Also with the valuation of those cable TV assets have been declining.

At best, Moffett says, while video is nice business, it is only supplementary in helping make “broadband stickier... It’s not that much more than an afterthought.”