• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, Yesterday

In a surprise move following a series of consecutive downgrades, Brian Wieser has boosted the outlook for U.S. ad-spending growth this year to 6.0%. That's nearly double the percent change he forecast in March when he downgraded his outlook for the second time following his original 2025 benchmark of 5.3% growth in September 2024.

The upgrade, which excludes the effects of political ad spending in this year's growth estimates, follows stronger-than-expected growth in the first (+9.7%, according to Wieser's estimates) and the second quarter (6.0%), and overall stronger economic indicators for the remainder of the year.

Wieser's revision comes as two of his former holding company ad forecasting unit's -- WPP Media's and IPG Mediabrands' Magna -- are poised to announce mid-year updates to their U.S. forecasts for 2025 ad spending growth.

"Back then, we wrote about how policy volatility in the U.S. might impact the advertising market," Wieser writes in this morning's edition of his Madison and Wall newsletter, referring to his last downgrade in March. "It amplified a generally negative view on the advertising market initiated with our December 2024 forecast. In both publications, we anticipated an environment that might look like stagflation with poor or negative 'real' growth but high levels of inflation. Although we continue to believe this take is accurate in the mid- to long-run, the current reality has delivered a relatively significant turn of fortune for the overall industry, at least for the present time."