• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, Yesterday

While it’s too soon to say just how deep pending legislation will cut into the grocery budget of low-income Americans, massive cuts to SNAP, or the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, seem inevitable. The latest version of Congress’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act would cut $300 billion in food benefits, while the Senate version would eliminate $200 billion.

With some 42 million Americans relying on these benefits, retailers and CPG brands are bracing for impact, looking for ways to help SNAP recipients make their shrinking budgets go further – a feat especially challenging given rising food costs and the growing impact of tariffs.

In a new report, Numerator, the retail analytics company, says the legislation will have ripple effects across the retail economy, as tighter work requirements and shifting program costs to states push as many as 1.3 million people off the program. “For brands, the impact could be immediate,” the report says.

Walmart, which captures about 25.8% of SNAP shoppers’ annual grocery dollars, is the most exposed. But dollar chains, mass retailers, and club stores also rely heavily on SNAP-driven traffic. New data from Numerator, based on spending patterns from 31,000 SNAP recipients and survey responses from 1,200, underscores just how much is at stake.

SNAP shoppers spend an average of $801 on groceries each month — 19% more than non-SNAP households — but spread those dollars thin, shopping 6.4 retailers a month versus 5.9 for others. Nearly all SNAP shoppers rely on Walmart (94.2%), while 78.8% shop Dollar Tree, 58.7% visit Target, and many also frequent Dollar General and Kroger. More say they are shifting toward large-store formats, including Costco, Amazon and Sam’s Club, chasing better prices.

Already, more than 75% of SNAP households say their benefits don’t last the month. With cuts looming, Numerator warns, the impact will extend beyond grocery trips: “When benefits are cut, households don’t just reduce grocery trips — they reprioritize everything.”

Numerator urges brands to rethink strategies now, from timing promotions to SNAP benefit cycles to offering value packs and multibuy deals. And with more retirees and full-time workers on SNAP than before, segmentation will be key.

“SNAP consumers are under pressure,” the report concludes. “These shoppers aren’t disengaged; they’re constrained.”