• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, Yesterday

The initial excitement around new management for Paramount Skydance now seems to be dropping to the level of humdrum reality.

Not only is the linear TV business still declining at a steady rate, but streaming continues to find a more mature -- and now more competitive -- marketplace. Michael Morris, media analyst of Guggenheim Securities says basic business problems remain. 

We can see the hype around the big move of Paramount spending nearly $8 billion on a multi-year UFC rights deal, but this comes in the wake of new and stronger sports streaming-specific businesses coming on line.

We speak of the all-in ESPN streamer, as well as Fox One, also launching last Thursday -- the former with more NFL content (NFL Network) and probably a more expansive Major League Baseball deal.

Fox One will have a wide range of news and entertainment content but also NFL, Major League Baseball, NASCAR and other sports content featured heavily.

According to current financial fundamentals from Morris, Paramount’s "TV Media" business still accounts for 60% of the company’s overall revenue with 100% of the company’s operating profit.

Going forward, the problem remains sizing up the linear sports TV business versus the “secularly challenged entertainment networks.” We should note that Paramount made a new $1.5 billion, five-year global streaming deal to continue with long-time comedy/animation franchise "South Park."

This all comes amid advertising that will continue to be severely challenged as well. Morris sees flat advertising revenue for this year $8.95 billion -- dipping down 6% next year (2026) to $8.40 billion, and then rising 5% in (2027)to $8.85 million,

Morris cautions: “Driving DTC growth without pressuring linear economics is an incremental risk to consolidated performance that we believe may be under-appreciated by management.”

Paramount Skydance management has stressed that unlike Comcast Corp. (NBCUniversal) and Warner Bros. Discovery) moves in spinning off lackluster cable TV networks, it will keep its networks around -- albeit with more stringent attention to cost cutting going forward, under Jeff Shell, president of Paramount.

In the meantime, the linear/streaming business balance will continue to have heightened introspection going forward. At the same time, guessing more big surprising content buying/selling decisions --- maybe in the UFC or "South Park” vein -- are on the horizon.

So then, what’s up with Paramount’s unexplained rising stock price recently? It could be more “meme” trading madness, according to analysts.

Hmmm.. more sharp comic fodder for Cartman, Stan and the crew.