Commentary

Predictable Irrationality In TV And Streaming Ad-Buying

by Dave Morgan , Featured Contributor, Yesterday

Ad buying, particularly in TV and premium streaming, is not exactly a paragon of data-driven decision-making.

Sure, we have plenty of self-described “data nerds,” but using data points to validate heuristically driven actions should not be confused with the thoughtful application of the scientific method to media selection.

To be clear, this is not the fault of agencies, media planners or buyers. No, it is almost entirely the fault of clients who backseat-drive the process and insert their personal biases, beliefs or desires into genre, show and network selections.

Unfortunately, the result of so many of these directions is paying too much for spots, audiences, and campaigns that dramatically underperform on their potential.

Here are some examples.

Preferring shows you (or your spouse, boss or kids) know and like. Since everyone in the business watches TV, they all assume they are experts on it.

It’s like food: We may know well what we like to eat, and many of us can cook, but very, very few of us have the ability to be a great chef. Great chefs are great chemists. Same for media buyers. They are great researchers, mathematicians and traders. They aren’t herd followers.

Spending the majority of the TV budget on streaming, certain that no one who matters anymore is watching linear TV. Yes, The Gauge from Nielsen tells us that about one-half of all content viewing time on televisions in the U.S. is now streamed. But since so much of that streamed content is ad-free or ad-light, only about 15% of all ad-viewing time is now streamed.

What happens when 50+% of TV ad budgets chase 15% of the available TV ad inventory? Super-high prices for streamed audiences, lots of digital ad fraud chasing that dumb money, and untapped ad bargains all across linear TV.

When you do buy linear TV ads, only buy live sports, live events and news. Of course advertisers like crown-jewel properties. It gives them bragging rights with colleagues, peers and rivals. But iis it always best to make the chief financial officer and investors happy? Usually not.

This list could go on for pages and pages, and extends way beyond TV and premium video buying.

For all of the money our industry has invested in data, science and technology, it’s incredible how little has changed in how so many make decisions.

What do you think?

media buying, media planning, streaming, television

3 comments about "Predictable Irrationality In TV And Streaming Ad-Buying".

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Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics Inc, April 16, 2026 at 6:32 p.m.
Quite right, Dave. But this is nothing new. It was the same way in linear TV from its beginnings when advertiser "sponsors" created their own shows and put them on the networks. It's not only a matter of egos, whims and biases of the sort you describe, it's also that so many advertisers use TV in exactly the same way as the other brands in their category and the follow the leaders attitude is rampant.

A key factor is the separation of media planning and TV time buying--which the buyers have orchestrated and keep in force. And this is compounded by the upfront practice of buying lots of GRPs, then parceling them out to the brands, rather than the brands buying what they think they need.--I cover this in my new book, "TV Yesterday, Today And Tomorrow", which we just listed on Amazon.

Puttng it bluntly, the buyers and sellers operate independently of the planners--who do appreciate the important nuances. And few, if any media plans expolre alternative ways to go, hence they reflect almost 100% what the client wants and is likely to accept--unlike "creative", where the "creatives" frequently risk client displeasure if their ideas aren't welcomed.
Reply

Dave Morgan from Simulmedia replied, April 17, 2026 at 8:48 a.m.

Spot on Ed. Yes. This is by no means new, though one would hope we would be doing better today given the technology now avaiable that makes data and facts visible much faster and the culture and practices of digital, where planning is directly connected to buying.

Dan C. from MS Entertainment, April 17, 2026 at 10:29 a.m.

Clients backseat driving media buys has been a practice for half a century. I remember doing large print buys back in the day and having to add magazines that made zero sense because the client just happened to like the magazine.

TV shows, websites, events, whatever - a client bias, right or wrong, will always be a factor.