• by Wayne Friedman , January 17, 2008

With half the broadcast season already finished, live prime-time ratings continue to sink by major double-digit declines, worrying advertising executives. The silver lining is that commercial ratings are a bit better than expected.

Looking at the season-to-date ratings through mid-January--measuring live program ratings this year to live program ratings of a year ago--four of the five major broadcasting networks are off anywhere from 16% to 20%, with CW, NBC and CBS coming in at the low end, and ABC down 16%. Only Fox is near parity of a year ago--off just 1%. But with "Idol" debut numbers down 12% versus a year ago, Fox might also join the club.

"It's not due to the strike," says Lyle Schwartz, managing partner and director of broadcast research and marketplace analysis for media holding company Group M, concerning the overall decline. "We haven't had any more repeats than in previous years. It is that viewers are finding other things to watch."

Whatever the reason, it's bad news for advertisers, says Schwartz--even if virtually the entire upfront market of a year ago made deals based on commercial ratings plus three days of DVR playback (C3). "You have to drive viewers to programs to get them watch commercials," he says.

But the better news is that commercial ratings plus three days of DVR viewership (C3) have come closer to the program ratings of a year ago on an index basis. Schwartz says commercial ratings plus three days of DVR viewership are virtually at 100% compared to their respective live program ratings of a year ago.

"It's a little bit higher than we expected," Schwartz notes, adding that it only amounts to around a half of a percent. Much of that comes from more delayed viewing than expected because of higher DVR penetration among U.S. TV households.