Ipsos Forecast Model Predicts 'Narrow' Biden Win: Cites Pandemic, Other Key Issues

With the COVID-19 pandemic remaining the No. 1 issue influencing American voters, Democratic challenger Joe Biden continues to lead the incumbent heading into next week's presidential election, according to the last of Ipsos' 2020 election analyses before America votes.

In a briefing held Thursday afternoon, Ipsos Senior Vice President and …

2 comments about "Ipsos Forecast Model Predicts 'Narrow' Biden Win: Cites Pandemic, Other Key Issues".
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  1. Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics Inc, October 30, 2020 at 1:52 p.m.

    I don't know what other info they provided, Joe, but looking at the table, it seems to indicate more than a small win for Biden to me.

  2. John Grono from GAP Research, October 30, 2020 at 6:54 p.m.

    Hmm.   It seems rather convenient that the outcomes are all "xxx-in-four".   This is not typical research reporting where the probabilities are expressed as a percentage, or as dispersion from the mean.

    It would be a bit like saying there is a "one-in-two chance that Biden wins" and a "one-in-two chance that Trump wins.

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