• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, September 10, 2009

Automotive ad spending continues moving in reverse -- at high speed. Even with the "cash for clunkers" program and post-bankrupt General Motors and Chrysler promising significant investments in marketing, total ad spending in the category is on pace to fall more than 31% this year, according to figures from TNS Media Intelligence.

Based on data from the first half of 2009, the sector could generate $9.8 billion in spending across all media for the year -- a 31.3% decline over 2008. That precipitous drop would be nearly twice the 15.7% of a year ago.

Top TNS researcher Jon Swallen revealed the figures at the Television Bureau of Advertising's annual forecast conference Thursday. And he offered a particularly grim outlook for the local TV business, which has suffered dramatically from the auto category's recalibration.

Spending on spot TV is expected to come in at $1.8 billion -- down 50.5% over last year, according to TNS. And data shows that local television is losing share, with its portion of dollars for the first half of 2009 at 18%, down from 26% last year.

From January-June of this year, spot TV lost revenues in each of the three entities that produce spending in the auto business: The manufacturers (down $423 million); dealer associations (down $303 million); and individual dealers ($179 million).

During the first six months of the year, the six leading automakers all cut spot TV spending, with Honda down the least at 27%. GM, which emerged from bankruptcy in June, was down the most at 70%; Chrysler curtailed spending 52%.

Vehicle sales are down notably -- the chief reason spending is dropping, Swallen indicated. "Total automotive ad spending is pretty proportional to units sold," the TNS vice president said.

Another reason may be GM and Chrysler having to pull back during their Chapter 11 proceedings.

Broadcasters, however, had hope that this summer's $3 billion government "cash for clunkers" program aimed at encouraging people to buy more fuel-efficient cars would offer a notable stimulus. But Swallen said the initiative had a "very modest" impact on spending not only for local stations, but national TV as well.

On the station level, Swallen said there were an average of 133,000 auto spots per week in May and June. Then, for three weeks in July as the program rolled out, the number increased to 146,000, 202,000 and 161,000, respectively. The next week, however, the figure fell to 90,000.

For national TV, the May-June average was 9,000 ads a week. Over the same three July weeks, the numbers came in at 10,000 and 11,000 for the first two -- then fell off to 7,000.

"Cash for clunkers" ended Aug. 24. "The boost did not last for the duration of the program," Swallen said. "It was like a very brief adrenaline surge."