Overall, Borrell Associates predicts that US ad spend for new cars will rise to a total of $19.2 billion from the low of $18.4 billion in 2009, experiencing a 4% growth rate across all media. These numbers represent declines from 2008 spending, following a precipitous drop in automotive ad spend of 31% in the first half of 2009, during which Chrysler and GM declared bankruptcy and the recession forced a significant decline in new auto sales.
US Total Local Ad Spend For New Cars | |
Year | Ad Spend (Billion $) |
2008 | $22.1 B |
2009 | 18.4 |
2010 | 19.2 |
Source: Borrell Associates, Auto Ad Outlook, November 2009 |
Online ad spend, says the report, which grew only 5.2% in 2009, will likely surpass all other media for new-vehicle advertising next year, driven by email, social networking and especially streaming audio and video campaigns, which will grow significantly.
Borrell says in the report that "Revenue from display banners, pop-ups and classified listings is dropping 20% this year, while spending by auto marketers on email and social networking campaigns is growing by 20%; a cross-over is expected next year, but it is streaming audio and video that will show the most growth this year and is positioning itself for "break-out" growth in 2010."
In assessing the impact on other media, the report shows that newspapers (-28.5%) and broadcast TV (-22.8%) have been hit the hardest this year, though they are expected to experience slight recovery in 2010, growing 3.8% year-over-year in 2010, while broadcast TV will rise 1.9%. Directories, (-8.1%) and other print media (-0.5%) will continue to see negative growth in 2010. Though a relatively small piece of auto advertising, cinema advertising is expected to experience the highest growth rate, 18%, and rise from $65 million this year to $77 million in 2010.
Projected 2009 New Vehicle Ad Spending, by Media Choice (All Projections in $ Millions) | |||
| Ad Spending by Revenue Source | ||
Media Choice | Dealers | Dealer Associations | Auto Manufacturers |
Newspapers | $20.43 | $4.29 | $14.72 |
Other Print | $4.32 | $1.38 | $9.18 |
Directories | $1.05 | $1.05 | $0.74 |
Broadcast TV | $7.59 | $12.47 | $31.26 |
Cable | $4.71 | $6.07 | $2.31 |
Radio | $5.55 | $2.54 | $0.91 |
Outdoor | $1.06 | $1.39 | $1.39 |
Cinema | $0.82 | $46.28 | $0.89 |
Direct Mail | $17.55 | $1.99 | $1.72 |
Online | $8.20 | $2.74 | $41.77 |
Telemarketing | $1.11 | na | $1.60 |
Source: Borrell Associates, November 2009 |
Citing a study from Northwood University for AutoTrader.com, Borrell notes that the increase in expected Internet spending is the result of the fact that the internet is the leading media driver of walk-in traffic. MediaBuyerPlanner added that, though most customers interviewed by Northwood University stated it was ads on the web that instigated their foot traffic, dealers themselves attributed 30% of foot traffic to the web, with the rest coming from newspapers, radio and direct mail,
Sanford C. Bernstein says smaller dealers are being squeezed out of the market by economies of scale, with only 20,000 dealers are left in the US. And, despite a difficult last few years, the report does point to additional signs of a marginal recovery and lasting change that will begin in 2010:
Borrell reports that in 2010 the dealer share of online ad spend will be 39.4%, the association share will be 9.2%, and the manufacturer share, including co-op spending, will account for 51.3% of all ad spending on new vehicles.
Projected 2009 Per Vehicle New Car Ad Spending By Dealership Employee Range | ||||
Dealership Employee Range | Ad $ per Vehicle Sold | Vehicles Sold | 2009 Ad $(Million) | Ad $ Share |
Under 5 | $500 | 53,980 | $0.45 | 0.6% |
5 to 20 | $548 | 134,870 | $0.99 | 1.4% |
21 to 50 | $530 | 1,348,350 | $7.69 | 10.6% |
51 to 100 | $440 | 3,454,380 | $17.60 | 24.3% |
101 to 200 | $425 | 2,188,810 | $8.10 | 11.2% |
201 or More | $400 | 9,695,780 | $37.56 | 51.9% |
Average/Total | $427 | 16,876,170 | $72.39 | 100% |
Sources: NADA, 2009; Dun & Bradstreet, 2009; Borrell Associates, 2009 |
General Motors announced in August that it planned to increase ad spend for the rest of 2009 and 2010, after having cut ad spend by 15% in 2008. GM is now the third-largest advertiser in the country, behind Procter & Gamble and Verizon
Projected 2009 New Motor Vehicle Sales by Dealer Employee Range | |||||||
Employee Range | |||||||
| Under 5 | 5 to 20 | 21 to 50 | 51 to 100 | 101 to 200 | 200or More | US New Car Totals/Averages |
New Car Dealership Locations | 120 | 60 | 90 | 90 | 30 | 600 | 990 |
Average Cars Sold: 2009 Projection | 450 | 2,248 | 14,982 | 38,382 | 72,960 | 16,160 | 17,047 |
Total Cars Sold: 2009 Projection | 53,980 | 134,870 | 1,348,350 | 3,454,380 | 2,188,810 | 9,695,780 | 16,876,170 |
Projected New Car Sales Share | 0.3% | 0.8% | 8.0% | 20.5% | 13.0% | 57.5% | 100% |
Sources: NADA, 2009; Dun & Bradstreet, 2009; Borrell Associates, 2009 |
For complete information and access to charts and graphs, please visit Borrell Associates here.
What am I missing here??? Projected new cars sold in 2009 16,876,170....they will be lucky to sell 10-12M max. Where did this number come from???
What about Social Media? What is the industry doing here?