• by Joe Mandese , July 15, 2010

Interpublic's Magna unit once again upgraded its outlook for U.S. ad spending, issuing a revised forecast on Wednesday that now predicts the U.S. ad market will expand 2.1% during 2010, an improvement from its previous forecast of a 1.6% expansion.

"We are effectively maintaining our long-term forecasts, with 3.6% average growth expected between 2010 and 2015, up from +3.5% previously," Magna Director of Global Forecasting writes in the report.

For the current quarter, Wieser predicted the U.S. ad market would expand 2.4% vs. the third quarter of 2009 when the industry was still mired in the throes of the economic recession.

Wieser said the major awareness generating media, especially TV, would benefit the most from the turnaround, noting that the $54.6 billion U.S. TV advertising marketplace, "will grow slightly faster than our prior expectations, largely led by national cable, whose share of television advertising revenues is in turn caused by a generally rising share of audiences."

Local TV would also "fair well," he said, exceeding Magna's previous predictions (see chart below).

While online media will continue to be the fastest growing of the major media sectors, Wieser said Magna has slightly reduced its "expectations" for online ad expansion in 2010 due to "weakness" in the online classifieds marketplace.

FORECAST SUMMARY: MEDIA SUPPLIER ADVERTISING REVENUES ($ in Millions)
	2009A	2010E	2011E		2010-2015 CAGR
Direct Online(a)	$13,664.5	$15,426.5	$17,081.2		9.6%
• Annual Growth / Decline	0.7%	12.9%	10.7%
Directories(b)	10,402.7	8,987.5	8,396.4		-7.2%
• Annual Growth / Decline	-16.7%	-13.6%	-6.6%
Direct Mail	18,731.8	19,168.1	19,599.3		3.4%
• Annual Growth / Decline	-13.3%	2.3%	2.2%
DIRECT	$42,799.0	$43,582.0	$45,076.9		4.1%
• Annual Growth / Decline	-10.2%	1.8%	3.4%
National Newspapers(b)	$869.7	$849.4	$823.5		-3.8%
• Annual Growth / Decline	-26.3%	-2.3%	-3.1%
Network and Satellite Radio	1,099.8	1,150.4	1,198.9		4.8%
• Annual Growth / Decline	-9.9%	4.6%	4.2%
National Digital/Online(c)	5,703.3	6,114.7	6,836.5		9.9%
• Annual Growth / Decline	-7.6%	7.2%	11.8%
Magazines(b)	15,609.0	15,681.4	15,724.0		-1.4%
• Annual Growth / Decline	-20.1%	0.5%	0.3%
National Television(b)(d)	33,699.9	35,359.7	37,065.6		6.5%
• Annual Growth / Decline	-4.1%	4.9%	4.8%
NATIONAL	$56,981.6	$59,155.6	$61,648.5		4.8%
• Annual Growth / Decline	-9.9%	3.8%	4.2%
Local Digital/Online(c)	$3,421.2	$3,727.2	$4,051.8		9.5%
• Annual Growth / Decline	-10.1%	8.9%	8.7%
Outdoor	5,900.7	6,033.6	6,280.5		6.6%
• Annual Growth / Decline	-15.6%	2.3%	4.1%
Local Radio(b)	13,203.0	13,928.1	13,945.7		1.9%
• Annual Growth / Decline	-20.2%	5.5%	0.1%
Local TV(b)(e)	16,871.6	18,484.5	19,326.2		4.2%
• Annual Growth / Decline	-13.6%	9.6%	4.6%
Local Newspapers(b)	23,951.5	21,662.2	20,312.5		-3.5%
• Annual Growth / Decline	-28.6%	-9.6%	-6.2%
LOCAL	$63,348.0	$63,835.6	$63,916.7		1.9%
• Annual Growth / Decline	-21.2%	0.8%	0.1%
TOTAL EXCLUDING POLITICAL AND OLYMPICS	$163,128.6	$166,573.3	$170,642.1		3.6%
• Annual Growth / Decline	-14.7%	2.1%	2.4%
Political(f)	$481.6	$2,033.9	$553.8		------
Olympics(g)	0.0	487.5	0.0		------
TOTAL SUPPLIER AD REVENUES	$163,610.2	$169,094.7	$171,195.9		3.3%
• Annual Growth / Decline	-15.5%	3.4%	1.2%
(a) Includes Paid Search, Lead Generation and Internet Yellow Pages
(b) Excludes Internet-Based Advertising Revenues
(c) Includes Rich/Online Video, Internet Classifieds, Email, Digital Display and Mobile
(d) Includes English and Spanish-Language Network TV, National Cable and National Syndication.  Excludes Incremental Olympic Revenues
(e) Includes Local Broadcast and Local Cable TV.  Excludes Local Political Advertising Revenues
(f) Total Political Advertising Revenue on Local Broadcast and Local Cable TV
(g) Incremental Advertising Revenue from Olympics on Network TV