• by Wayne Friedman , April 8, 2011

The strong market for broadcast and cable TV networks may get better. They now may have another factor looming in their favor: Billions of ad dollars from NFL programming that may have nowhere to go.

Estimates are that the $2.5 billion in TV money that lands on NFL games annually on Fox, CBS, NBC and ESPN each fall might need a home. And it could go into prime time and other programming in this June's upfront market.

The current TV scatter advertising marketplace has seen big double-digit price increases -- in some cases, 40% over upfront pricing set last June. All this has the June upfront market poised for more significant CPM viewer price increases.

Now add in possible money from professional football games on TV, and many media executives say the NFL represents a major wild card in the marketplace.

"It's a huge risk for broadcasters and other TV networks," says Mel Berning, executive vice president of advertising sales and marketing for A&E Networks. And for NFL TV advertisers? "What are they going to do -- buy male-viewer ratings points in the scatter market?"

In the prime-time market alone, national TV advertisers spend a collective $19.5 billion -- around $8.5 billion on broadcast networks; $8 billion on cable networks, and about $3 billion in syndication. The possibility exists to add another $2.5 billion from NFL TV advertisers looking for a home.

The NFL isn't just a simple sports TV franchise -- it's the most lucrative of all TV sports, a key marketing building block for automotive, telecommunications, movies, financial and other advertising categories. Many NFL deals are made in June, right around the same time that other upfront daypart deals are getting done.

Analysts have been assuming the lockout might be short-lived. But if it isn't, NFL TV marketers -- which are mostly seeking male and young male audiences -- may have to change plans, especially if things don't change around late May or early June.

Who would get some of this business? TV analysts guess it could land on Web sites or late-night TV talk shows, including cable programs hosted by Conan O'Brien, Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert -- TV and video that attract young men. Other considerations include MTV, Comedy Central, Adult Swim, History, and non-NFL programming on ESPN. Some syndicated daytime off-net sitcoms might also fit the bill.

If the season is delayed, Gary Carr, senior vice president and executive director of national broadcast for TargetCast TCM, says: "Some advertisers' money will hedge their fourth-quarter bets maybe with college football, the World Series, a little basketball." How much? TV analysts estimate if the lockout continues, maybe $500 million of the $2.5 billion may be shifted.

Some ESPN and other executives have estimated the worst scenario will be if the season is delayed a few weeks -- perhaps with three games cut. Many TV marketers have bought up the possibly of putting money into college football instead. The problem there is that TV advertising inventory is already sold for next season.

Sports leagues missing entire seasons because of strikes or lockouts are rare. But it has happened, most recently with the NHL and back in the mid-1990s with Major League Baseball.

Although some shifts in TV money might occur, media-buying executives for the most part believe NFL marketers will actually do very little, making adjustments to the networks later on.

"You should buy the NFL like nothing is going to happen," says another senior media executive. "That is because you can't replace those rating points." While you can beef up some of your digital/ Internet presence -- or send money to places like Adult Swim -- all this won't amount to much, he says. "It would be better to hold onto your money."

TargetCast's Carr agrees that many TV marketers will just stand pat -- and make changes with their network partners when needed. The NFL has delivered steady and big ratings over the last several years -- mostly immune to TV ratings erosion and other negative industry factors.

Says Carr: "In the last couple of years, people and marketers are loving sports on television. It's male-viewer [targeted]. It isn't DVR-ed. And it's high-rated -- especially the NFL."