• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, April 11, 2011

Global crises, including the natural and man-made disasters in Japan and turmoil in the Middle East, has taken four-tenths of a percentage point out of this year's global ad expansion, according to the latest in ZenithOptimedia's quarterly series of industry forecasts. Citing those macro-economic factors, Zenith lowered its 2011 global ad growth forecast to 4.2% from its previous projection of 4.6%.

While those global economic factors have "knocked" about $2.4 billion out of 2011's global ad expenditures, Zenith said the underlying ad expansion remains "healthy," and the Publicis agency actually increased its forecast for 2012 growth by six-tenths of a percentage point to 5.8% from its previous forecast of 5.2%.

The revised outlook now projects that the Internet will become the world's second largest ad medium in 2013, moving it ahead of newspapers, and placing it just behind television.

One of the reasons why Zenith lowered its global ad outlook due to the Japanese crisis is that Japan is the second largest domestic advertising market after the U.S., and the impact the triple whammy of earthquakes, a tsunami and a lingering nuclear power plant crisis, has derailed its economy, including advertising spending.

Zenith currently is projecting that the U.S. advertising marketplace will expand 2.5% in 2011, 3.4% in 2012, and 3.2% in 2013.

"Although recovery will continue, the economy has still not returned to the level it was at before the recession, and neither has advertising spending. It will take several years for advertising spending to reach the level it was at in 2008," the agency's U.S. report noted.

ZenithOptimedia North America chief Tim Jones said that uncertainty in the Middle East, and the rising cost of oil, which in turn has raised the cost of production for some key consumer marketers, has taken some steam out of the expansion, but said underlying sigs remain healthy.

He cited the resurgence of ad spending by some key categories, including domestic autos and banks, as particularly encouraging for the U.S. marketplace, and said early signs for the 2011-12 television upfront advertising marketplace signal that it will be "quick" due to "high demand," which will push prices for national TV advertising up relative to recent years.

Among digital media, he singled out "digital video" and mobile advertising as having especially high rates of growth.