• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, August 30, 2011

A new report says small- and medium-sized businesses will continue to shift marketing dollars away from traditional outlets to more measured and emerging media. By 2015, the group will be spending 30% of their budgets in the so-called traditional realm -- down from 52% last year, according to BIA/Kelsey.

The bulk of their dollars will be spent in the digital arena -- stretching from mobile platforms to social media to online directories, as well as performance-based commerce such as couponing and customer-retention marketing such as email.

The report focuses on local-market spending, where BIA/Kelsey projects overall "media, marketing and business solutions" investment to grow from $22.4 billion in 2010 to $40.2 billion in 2015, a 12% compound annual growth rate.

Traditional ad spending over the period should be largely flat -- from $11.8 billion to $12.1 billion, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.6%.

Digital online spending should experience a CAGR of 24.9%, with its $16.6 billion in 2015 eclipsing traditional media. Performance-based commerce and transaction platforms are projected to increase by a 21.5% CAGR to $4.6 billion, while customer-retention investment is forecast to have a 14.6% CAGR and increase to $6.9 billion in 2015.

Groupon and Living Social have offered a new venue that can chip away at traditional dollars, according to Neal Polachek, BIA/Kelsey president.

"With the advent of daily deals to drive customer acquisition, [small- and medium-sized businesses] are now increasingly focused on leveraging technological solutions to engage, grow and retain a higher percentage of their customers," he stated.

Conversely, Google executive chairman Eric Schmidt took exception to the much-discussed concept of dollars shifting from traditional to new media at an industry event, suggesting the pie can grow rather than be carved up differently.