• by Tanya Gazdik , September 1, 2011

AAA forecasts that 31.5 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more this Labor Day holiday weekend, and more of them are driving than flying.

Airfares are on the rise, and for the first time this year, the overall number of holiday air travelers is expected to decline (down 2.4% from last year) for a major travel holiday.

"While automobile travel is expected to increase slightly, if recent declines in gasoline prices continue through Labor Day, we could see an increase in last-minute holiday weekend travel," said Glen MacDonell, director, AAA Travel Services, in a release.

About 27.3 million people (87% of holiday travelers) plan to take to the nation's roadways this Labor Day holiday weekend. This is a slight increase of 0.5% from the 27.2 million Labor Day 2010 auto travelers, and a 3% increase in the share of total holiday travelers from last year's 84%. Automobile travel remains the dominant mode of holiday transportation.

Almost 2.5 million leisure travelers (8% of holiday travelers) will fly during the Labor Day holiday weekend, a 1.9% decrease from 2010. Rising fuel costs, combined with steady air travel demand, have resulted in rising airfares over the past few months. According to AAA's Leisure Travel Index, Labor Day airfares are expected to be 13% higher than last year with an average lowest round-trip rate of $202 for the top 40 U.S. air routes.

According to a survey of traveler intentions, the average distance traveled by Americans during the Labor Day holiday weekend is expected to be 608 miles, only slightly less than last year's average travel distance of 635 miles. Median spending is expected to be $702, largely unchanged from $697 last year.

Fuel and transportation costs combine to consume the largest share of holiday spending (27%), followed by accommodations (22%), food and beverages (21%), shopping (13%), entertainment and recreation (12 %), and other costs (5%).

AAA's projections are based on economic forecasting and research by IHS Global Insight. The Boston-based economic research and consulting firm teamed with AAA in 2009 to jointly analyze travel trends during the major holidays. AAA has been reporting on holiday travel trends for more than two decades.