Speaking at an UBS’ 42nd Annual Global Media and Communications Conference, the chief research officer of CBS expects that for 2015 as a whole, the broadcast TV market could be down 1% versus 2014 — or up 1% when leaving out the big gains from the Winter Olympics in 2014.
Poltrack says the first half of the year would be virtually unchanged but the second half of the year would show some growth, at 2%.
For 2014, he said the broadcast networks will now see advertising revenue hikes of 1% in volume this year, or down 1% when adjusted for the Olympics. Poltrack had previously predicted 6% growth, or 4% when adjusting for the Olympics lift.
“I missed the call for 2014 by a wide margin," he said. "The advertising market never gained any momentum in 2014."
Still, he estimates broadcast TV networks would be able to capture some “back share” from the cable networks — possibly adding 1% to their upfront deals made in June 2014. This would be for the broadcast year September 2014 through August 2015.
Broadcast could be flat in upfront advertising revenues versus the previous TV season’s upfront market. Excluding the Olympics revenues of 2014, for the full calendar year 2015, broadcast could see a 2% rise.
Poltrack characterize the current TV advertising market as a “mercurial scatter market that fluctuates day to day.”