Forecast: Streaming Will Surpass Trad Pay TV

Where will “most” of people's media consumption be in six years? One research study says much less of it will be via traditional pay TV media, citing binge viewing and multiple device options.

Only 18% of U.S. consumers are expecting to watch “most” of their TV movies/sports content in six years — in 2020 — on pay TV services, according to Netherlands-based, Irdeto, which provides media protection and other services for pay TV and OTT operators. 27% of U.S. consumers expect to watch most content through Internet TV services like Netflix or Amazon Prime.

Numbers are much higher for those 18- to 34 years old — with 40% seeing “most” of their consumption of TV programming on internet TV services by 2020.

But pay TV fans still have their reasons: Of those who will watch more pay TV six years from now, 56% of those in the U.S. say it's because the user experience is better, and 45% of respondents in the U.K. Another reason noted: 32% of U.S. respondents and 56% of those in the U.K. cited more content availability as the main reason for expecting to watch more content on pay TV in 2020.

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Binge viewing and multiscreen are also factors — 39% in the U.S. and 41% in the U.K. say that being able to watch multiple episodes of a series at once is a reason for watching more TV content via the Internet. 40% of those in the U.S. and 39% in the U.K. also pointed to being able to watch more content on multiple devices.

This research is drawn from a survey of a representative sample of over 4,700 adults, conducted in an effort to reveal trends in viewing expectations in the U.S., U.K., Australia, Singapore, India and Indonesia.

9 comments about "Forecast: Streaming Will Surpass Trad Pay TV".
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  1. Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics Inc, January 7, 2015 at 1:33 p.m.

    Once again, a bit of highly fanciful research based on what respondents claim they will do-----but probably wont---at least not to the extent they indicate or even close to it. If you were to ask the same respondents about their probable program genre viewing patterns in the near future, most would probably favor "engaging" or "better" shows than what we've got now. Maybe dramas would come up first, then comedies while "crappy reality" fare would, most likely, be last. However, in the real world, the same people will keep right on gorging themselves on "The Real Housewives Of Podunk" or the latest incarnation of "Flip That House"and, mostly, while sitting at home and watching these shows "live" on their linear TV sets.

  2. John Grono from GAP Research, January 7, 2015 at 4:10 p.m.

    There is also doubt that the internet pipes would be fat enough in the foreseeable future to allow such large volumes of point-to-point transmission. The infrastructure costs to allow 1080p (let alone 4K) transmission would be astronomical that would translate to a significant premium over current models.

  3. Robin Solis from synchronicity.co, January 13, 2015 at 5:17 p.m.

    And everyone will need a better delivery platform than what's out there now. We need easy to do live ads insertions, better targeted content on the fly, intuitive and responsive UX, better data gathering and many more automated functions. Oh right! We've built that. Any other suggestions are welcomed to address today's streaming problems/hang-ups.

  4. Robin Solis from synchronicity.co, January 13, 2015 at 5:20 p.m.

    Hey John Grono from GAP Research. There is more than one way to attack a problem ;)

  5. Robin Solis from synchronicity.co, January 13, 2015 at 5:23 p.m.

    to: Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics Inc. Right. Especially where there are raised doubts now about the validity of group research data. I heard about it on NPR's Radio Lab.

  6. John Grono from GAP Research, January 13, 2015 at 9:20 p.m.

    I agree Robin, I've spent the past 38 years doing just that.

  7. Nicholas Schiavone from Nicholas P. Schiavone, LLC, January 14, 2015 at 8:52 p.m.

    Dear Wayne, John, Robin & All Research-Based Fortune Tellers masquerading as forecasters,
    "Those who live by the crystal ball are condemned to eat glass."
    Be careful in 2015.
    Sincerely,
    Nick
    PS MediaPost needs to get a grip on the use of research to foretell the future or to inspire rose-tinted heresies.
    PPS Thank you for the wise context, Ed.

  8. John Grono from GAP Research, January 14, 2015 at 9:05 p.m.

    So Nick, I take it that you disagree with my observation and comment (I don't do forecasts) that there is simply insufficient broadband infrastructure in order to support the conjecture of the article that streaming will surpass broadcast by 2020.

  9. Nicholas Schiavone from Nicholas P. Schiavone, LLC, January 14, 2015 at 9:22 p.m.

    Happy New Year, John!
    I cannot disagree with what you stated & the way you stated it.
    As far as I'm concerned, we're off to a good start.
    I just wish we could wean Wayne Freidman off those drags on the helium balloon of "research to show" (versus "research to know"). Thanks for checking in!

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