Local TV Broadcast Advertising Declines Among Core Advertisers

by Wayne Friedman , September 25, 2017

Core local TV broadcast advertising dollars could be in for a tough stretch in the next few years, as digital media dollars continue to climb.

Pivotal Research Group estimates that traditional, linear local TV broadcast advertising -- excluding political ad revenues -- will sink 2.2% in 2017, to $15 billion. This will be followed by another 4% decline in 2018 to $14.4 billion; a 4.2% decline in 2019 to $13.8 billion; a 4.5% drop to $13.2 billion in 2020; and a 4.7% pullback to $12.6 billion in 2021.

Total local TV -- broadcast and local cable -- is expected to decline 1.6% this year to $19.8 billion and another 3.4% to $19.2 billion in 2018.

But local digital advertising -- which could include local TV station/cable activities -- is expected to climb. It is poised to increase 9% this year to $7.8 billion and to rise 7.2% next year to $8.4 billion; 5.9% higher to $8.9 billion in 2019; up 4.8% to $9.3 billion in 2020; and 3.8% higher to $9.7 billion in 2021.

In contrast, traditional national TV networks will see more slight declines to core advertising -- without Olympics revenues.

Pivotal says national TV will slip 1.9% this year to $44.3 billion and will be 2.1% down to $43.4 billion next year, with another 1.9% decline to $42.6 billion in 2019; a 2.3% drop to $41.6 billion in 2020; and a 2.6% decline in 2021 to $40.5 billion.

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3 comments about "Local TV Broadcast Advertising Declines Among Core Advertisers".

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Douglas Ferguson from College of Charleston, September 26, 2017 at 9:57 a.m.
But if your target customer is 50+ then broadcast is still a solid venue.
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Suzanne Sell from Independent, September 26, 2017 at 12:23 p.m.

It's no surprise, given the amount of political ad money that poured into local stations in 2016. That alone would produce a revenue drop.

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