MoffettNathanson Research now says its overall estimate for traditional U.S. advertising will decline 1.4% in 2018, with digital media climbing 17%.
The overall U.S. advertising market will improve 6.7% this year, up from a 2.5% increase in 2017. U.S. advertising gains are expected around the Winter Olympics to be held next month in South Korea, as well as the political advertising from mid-term elections in November.
Total television revenues are expected to grow 2.7% this year, from a 5.5% decline in 2017. Newspapers are expected to be down 8% (down 10% in 2017) while radio is forecast to be flat (down 1% in 2017); consumer magazines down 2% (off 10% a year ago); and outdoor up 1% (flat in 2017).
Looking at 2017, Michael Nathanson, senior media analyst at MoffettNathanson Research, now estimates that traditional U.S. media sank 8%. His previous estimate was 6%, and his current 2017 estimate is that the digital media business grew 19.5%.
Overall, Nathanson has lowered his U.S. advertising spending in 2017 by almost a full point: “We expect reported ad growth to rise by 2.5% in 2017 versus our prior estimate of 3.4%."
Some of this was due to changing end-of-the-year market results -- especially in the third quarter of 2017, when traditional media witnessed a decline of 11%, with digital gaining 22%.