Much of the news in recent ad forecasts has focused on digital’s ascendancy -- and no surprise, Magna’s new outlook calls for digital to become the majority of U.S. ad spending some time this year. But the other side of that story is the erosion of TV’s share of ad spending.
According to Magna, the U.S. TV advertising marketplace -- with the exception of local growth in election years -- is now in a permanent ad recession.
In fact, the national TV advertising market is projected to have eight consecutive down quarters through the second quarter of 2018, according to Magna’s estimates.
“We have now completely passed the 2016 comparison effect,” the Magna report notes, going on to point out that even against a relatively “easy” comparison to the lackluster spending of the third quarter of 2016, the national TV ad market still turned in a down quarter in the third quarter of 2017.
“National television ad sales will decline between -2% to -3% going forward,” Magna concludes.
The picture is not any prettier for the local TV ad marketplace, and with the exception of election years, Magna does not expect any growth for local TV at all.