• by Ray Schultz , Columnist, November 1, 2018

Tired of election forecasts? Here’s a prediction of another kind: this holiday season will produce $124.1 billion in online sales, with Cyber Monday alone generating $7.7 billion, according to Adobe. 

The total figure amounts to a 14.8% increase in holiday sales over those of 2017. In contrast, online sales will probably rise by 2.7%.

Thanksgiving Day sales will amount to $3.3 billion, for a 16.5% boost. And the four-day weekend between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday will drive $23.4 billion -- 19% of total online sales for the season. 

Email will help -- but not as much as some channels. Adobe says email will generate an 8% increase in revenue per visit (RPV), compared with 36% for direct web site visits. To drive sales, email teams should pursue “same-time optimization for every customer, knowing when is the best time to send,” says Bruce Swann, group product marketing manager for Adobe Campaign. 

Swann notes that while email inboxes are cluttered, marketers can still use email to drive revenue. But it may be time to throw out some best practices and try more innovative design ideas. 

Meanwhile, ecommerce retailers will also benefit from an extra calendar day between Cyber Monday and Christmas Day. That day alone will pull $284 million in sales, Adobe says. 

Brands with both online and brick-and-mortar footprints will see 28% higher conversion than firms with no storefront. 

In another prognostication, Adobe says social media will suffer an 11% decline in RPV -- the only channel to see a drop.

Are these numbers credible? To arrive at these figures, Adobe analyzed one trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, along with 55 million SKUs and activity by 80 of the largest online retailers. All this was done through Adobe Sensei, the firm’s artificial intelligence and machine-learning setup.

Adobe also says that only 1% of SKUs will make up 70% of the sales. The top products: the Ridge RacerType 4 and Final Fantasy VII, and such toys as Fingerlings, Fortnite Monopoly, Grumblies, Hatchimal Hatchibabies and Jurassic World Jeep Wrangler.

The company adds that there will be a 119% increase in people buying online and picking up the merchandise in a store since January of this year. That hike rises to 250% for larger retailers.

Finally, in one happy observation, Adobe says that, in general, ecommerce is not affected by the elections. Retail visits dip by 6% the day after, but rebound by 8% by Friday. Smartphone revenue-per-visit also recovers by the weekend after a 15-20% dip on Election Day.