Forecast: Nonlinear TV Ads To Grow 22% In 2019
- by Wayne Friedman , June 17, 2019
Magna, the intelligence unit of IPG Mediabrands, says nonlinear TV advertising sales -- on Hulu, full-episode players, and other digital areas -- will increase by 22% to $2.6 billion in 2019. This will represent 6% of total national TV ad revenues.
In 2018, total linear national and linear TV revenues were $64.7 billion.
National television’s linear advertising sales will sink 3% to $41 billion in 2019 due to “lower spend from some key verticals and the lack of cyclical events.” They will drop another 0.4% in 2020.
English-language broadcast networks' ad revenues will decline 5% in 2019, with cable networks seeing a 2% decrease in 2019 and a 0.5% dip in 2020.
“Despite an all-time high in CPMs [cost per thousand viewer price] ($50 for network prime-time adults 18-49), linear television remains attractive for its reach and brand safety, and affordable by the tech sector,” says Magna.
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Local TV advertising will decline 18% in 2019 when including comparisons to cyclical events -- political advertising and Olympics events. It will rise 12% in 2020 because of political and Olympic advertising.
In 2018, local TV ad revenues totaled $22.1 billion.
Magna says the Summer Olympics/ U.S. Presidential elections in 2020 will bring a record $6.2 billion of incremental advertising revenue. It was $5.4 billion in 2018.
Total digital video is set to rise 19.7% in 2019 and 14.5% in 2020. It was $13.7 billion in 2018.
Very new, small, albeit, not necessarily bad, things usually grow at a much faster rate than giants in their mature state. The real question concerns what will transpire in the future. Will the small things get so big that they dwarf the current giants---or will their seemingly rapid growth peak, then level off at a considerbly lower level. This is what usually happens, though I'm not forecasting that this will be the case for "non-linear TV ads". We shall eventually see---won't we?