• by Wayne Friedman , August 5, 2019

BIA Advisory Services forecasts another big political advertising season for 2020 -- with $6.55 billion spent on local political ads, a year that includes the big presidential race.

Most of the money will go to local TV stations -- $3.08 billion, for a 47% share. Local digital/online advertising will land $1.37 billion (21% share), while local ads through pay TV providers -- cable, satellite or telco -- will get $919 million (14%); and radio, $312 million (4.8%). The balance will go to other media.

BIA says the three biggest markets will be Los Angeles ($368 million), Phoenix ($280 million) and Philadelphia ($259 million), with local TV getting the lion’s share in each market.

In June, Kantar Media predicted the 2019-2020 federal political advertising season would see $6 billion: broadcast, $3.2 billion; digital media, $1.2 billion; cable $1.2 billion; and radio, $400 million. Kantar’s estimates include spending only on ads sponsored by federal candidates or campaigns, not PACs.

PQ Media forecasts 2020 total political advertising to hit $8.33 billion. It estimated political advertising to total $6.75 billion in 2018.

For the midterm 2018 elections, Kantar reports that $5.25 billion was spent on advertising in local broadcast, local cable and local digital media -- 17% higher than in 2016.