• by Ray Schultz , Columnist, October 29, 2019

Online sales growth will outpace that of retail in general this holiday season, according to predictions by Adobe.

Adobe projects that online sales will grow by 14.1% and total retail will grow by 4%. Online sales should hit $143.7 billion.

Cyber Monday sales alone will reach $9.4 billion, an 18.9% increase over the prior year.

Moreover, online sales should total $3 billion between the "golden hours" of 7 p.m. and 11 p.m. Pacific Time on Cyber Monday, Adobe says in a blog post.

The projections are being made as brands near a short selling season -- 22 days between Cyber Monday and Christmas Day. This is six days shorter than usual, and could result in a loss of almost $1 billion of potential revenue.

Email remains the most preferred way to receive an offer, and both email and search produce higher conversion rates than social media, Adobe notes.

However, 50% of consumers also say that ads will affect their purchasing decisions.

Smartphones will play a major role — phone visits to retail sites from social media have gone from 4% to 11% in the last three years.

According to Adobe,Americans will spend $14 billion more on their smartphones this year than they did in holiday 2018. Smartphones will account for 36% of all online sales, a 20% hike over last year, and 57% of all visits, an 11% hike over the prior year.

Thanksgiving Day sales should increase by 19.5%, producing $4.4 billion in revenue.

Adobe also estimates that one out of five holiday shopping dollars will be spent during Cyber Week between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday. The total: $29 billion or 20% of total online revenue this season.

Here’s another prediction that brands should note: BOPIS orders (buy online, pick up in store) will grow by 39% in volume YOY.

Adobe estimates that 37% of consumers are planning to use BOPIS this season and 82% of those will  probably shop for additional items when picking up their order.