Broadcast network delivery is projected to be down 9.4% and cable network delivery is down 2.4%, forcing both broadcast (+8.8%) and cable (+6.4%) to boost CPMs in order to cover shortfalls, according to the analysis from the equities research team at UBS.
"If the trend holds, it would represent the largest quarterly decline for TV viewership in our data set," he explains, adding: "Trends have worsened across most age demos with persons 25-34 now falling -17% vs. low double-digit declines throughout 2019. The persons 55+ demo continues to trend down ~2%, similar to 2019 (the first year of declining ratings for the demo)."
Joe, as I have pointed out before, the so-called 18-49 "targeting" ratings are merely a GRP tonnage guarantee metric, not a true brand targeting indicator. Also, when an upfront buy is made, the buyers and sellers do not merely assume that next year's ratings will be exactly the same as this year's when Nielsen is showing, say, a 12% drop each year. The buyers and sellers make future estimates for all shows and channels assuming an added decline in ratings due to the impact of competing sources of content. Once they agree on these the buys---with their expected deliveries---are made. In the event that ratings for the guarantee metric---18-49 or 25-54--decline by 14% instead of the expected 12%, the net loss to the sellers---which will be made up via make goods---usually---as opposed to cash rebates---is only 2%.Some people seem to think that ad dollars flow in precise relationship to the ratings as they are reported---but that isn't the case where upfront buys are concerned. As for scatter buys, these are always short term in nature---quarterly not annually---and guessing the anticipated future ratings in aggregate for a given schedule is a far less risky business as once the earlyfall numbers are seen the new season's winners and losers are fairly well established.
A BIG Amen Ed Papazian !