
Halfway through the first quarter, the network TV marketplace
appears to be getting off to a troubling start, according to the tracking of a leading Wall Street securities firm following the sector.
Broadcast network delivery is projected to be down 9.4% and
cable network delivery is down 2.4%, forcing both broadcast (+8.8%) and cable (+6.4%) to boost CPMs in order to cover shortfalls, according to the analysis from the equities research team at UBS.
"Viewership declines have accelerated to start 2020 with Person 2+ PUT trending down 7.5% quarter-to-date vs. -6.3% in the fourth quarter of 2019, and -7.0% a year ago," writes UBS analyst John
C. Hodulik in a note sent to investors this morning. By "PUT," Hodulik is referring to the Nielsen acronym for persons using television, which seem to be eroding at an accelerated rate due to a
variety of macro factors (see chart below).
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"If the trend holds, it would represent the largest quarterly decline for TV viewership in our data set," he explains, adding: "Trends have
worsened across most age demos with persons 25-34 now falling -17% vs. low double-digit declines throughout 2019. The persons 55+ demo continues to trend down ~2%, similar to 2019 (the first year of
declining ratings for the demo)."
